Carville: Economic issues will favor Democratics in 2008

Posted Mar 4th 2008 4:23PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Forecasts, Other Issues, Politics

In an appearance on NBC's Meet The Press (NYSE: GE), political analyst James Carville cited analysis that would please a political scientist regarding the factors likely to shape the 2008 presidential election, as his prediction was consistent with the most accurate theory regarding voting behavior. (Note: Carville has provided political advise to Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign to secure the Democratic Party's 2008 nomination for president.)

Carville said that objective economic events in this election cycle favor the party out of power. Those objective economic events? The housing slump, higher energy and food costs, and anemic job growth, conditions that are "presenting real economic hardship for many Americans." (Or as Carville would put it, in the 2008 election, as in the 1992 election, "It's the economy, stupid.")

U.S. GDP and related statistics for Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 have documented the impact that mortgage, energy and food costs have had on the U.S. economy, and voter responses during primary exit polls have confirmed that they've been on the mind of voters throughout the primary season, and in particular on the minds of Democratic primary voters.

Political Analysis: Specific issues, usually short-term factors in an election, are the third most important factor affecting a voter's choice, after party identification and attitude toward the candidate. The short-term factors are usually in-place and irreversible three to six months before the election. Hence, if economic conditions remain roughly the same through June 2008, those issues should favor the Democratic Party's nominee.

Tags: 2008 election, Carville, Clinton, Democratic Party, food prices, GDP, housing, Meet The Press, mortgages, oil prices, primaries, recession, U.S. economy