TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Pennsylvania's foreclosures are declining, thanks to a plan that can be applied nationally.We keep hearing how the AAA paper is unfairly being marked down because of the "need" to sell. We hear that if the paper, particularly the mortgage paper, were allowed to be held, there would be no problem, that, for example, the Thornburg (NYSE: TMA) (Cramer's Take) paper, which is most likely not going to default, or the paper that AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) is insuring, the so-called super senior, which is also most likely not going to default. We keep believing that the real issue is the markings, and how the markings reflect unrealistically depressed valuations.
Obviously the Fed believes this, too or it wouldn't have been so complacent. So why doesn't the Fed puts its money where its mouth is, and do something, non-bailoutish, that exploits the market's imperfection. Why doesn't it issue $50 billion of two-year notes at 1.60% and take the money and buy high quality mortgages and other collateralized obligations, the very stuff that everyone says will pay off over time. Then the Fed can make money holding the stuff, the banks get more liquid, which takes the pressure off their balance sheets, and no bailout occurs?
If you are worried that the Fed will get snookered, or if the Fed is worried, more accurately, it can hire someone -- yes, moral hazard, someone makes money -- like a Pimco to evaluate what it buys if it lacks the expertise, although I don't think it does.
This is a quick and dirty way to get out of this mess and it might be worth a try.
Ultimately I favor an FHA guarantee plan not unlike the Pennsylvania state equivalent that is making it so Pennsylvania's foreclosures are declining. Pennsylvania put it in place under Governor Rendell, because there was a terrible boom-bust cycle in the Poconos a few years before all of this madness.
It worked there, it could work nationally.
I know that Pennsylvania didn't have the radical price appreciation as we had in Florida, but it is no better than Michigan or Ohio. Either way, the two-year plan does not need the Fed to keep cutting rates, and if it really was in a jam it could do this plan yesterday!
No bail out, no Treasury, no Congress, what's not to like?
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-04-2008 @ 10:25AM
william lindblad said...
Obviously, you don't live in Pa. FYI - local tax base is broken into two. Real property tax and school tax. There is also a head tax, city(if applicable), county income tax and a per capita tax. There is no relief for fixed income, nor any property tax relief for the general public. There is a state income tax. A lot of money is collected. The roads are some of the worst in the nation, along with badly neglected bridges. The schools have swimming pools, track & tennis courts and rival a college campus. And, by the way - Pa. real estate took a major jump along with the rest of the country. The pokies had a problem - a lot was drug related and this did a number on values. Better info - better answers. Take a better look at Pa, before you think they have answers. Road repair consists of putting up signs that are overgrown with brush within a year. Nearly all the fire companies are volunteers and most of the rural police service is state.
3-04-2008 @ 1:40PM
twenty-niner said...
Cramer,
What's all this worry about housing? I remember just a year ago that "everything was alright" and hearing half-baked ostrich organizations like NAR warning renters to get in while real estate appreciations had leveled off or risk being forever priced out of the market. What a difference a year makes...
In short, no bail-out for the risk-loves and Ponzi financers. No more debt to pay off debt! Until we get back to the business of creating real wealth instead of living off asset bubbles, this country is doomed to these sorts of crises. Let's take our medicine now while a long-term future is still salvageable.
3-04-2008 @ 2:06PM
Joe said...
Financial institutions should get a good dose of government intervention for this shady practices which include:
Buyer must have 20% cash down
Buyer must have a job at least 2 years
Buyer must have an income capable of paying the intended mortgage.
House should be apprasied by a group of realters, govt. officials, community members.
Now for the forclosure people, talk to your lender, get a 40 year mortgage, get a lower interest rate, rent the house from the lender, walk away. Don't look to get bailed out. Social Security got in trouble cause it gave away money to all sorts of people and when those who paid into it came there turn the government answer was du.
3-04-2008 @ 2:06PM
Lyn said...
So let's see- We have the feds buy some questionable paper with borrowed money the taxpayers are on the hook for, but it will all work out as long as we don't call it what it is
3-04-2008 @ 2:42PM
Americas Watchdog said...
Jim;
You still do not get it. We have the National Mortgage Complaint Center & the Corporate Whistle Blower Center & we are auditing conference call transcripts for mortgage bankers, banks & home builders, all selling garbage loans to Wall Street. They all lied their rears off to the Street & their investors. The loans are worth about $0.65 on the dollar.
You fail to recognize that what we are seeing here is historic, and goes way past recessioin.....and you want the Feds or a State to bail out the same people who were built the fraud in the first place. We are talking about trillions in equity that never existed. The banks, mortgage banks and the home builders simply made up the equity as they went along............and now they get a free pass. And as usual the tax payer picks up the bar tab.
Let Angelo Countrywide's CEO pay it. Let Merrill Lynch pay it. Let the other mortgage bankers, investment bankers or banks pay it. If not, then the federal government should pay off every performing mortgage in the US too.
While I am at at it, you are a big fan of interest rate cuts. Uncle Ben of the Feds rate cuts have translated into zero as far as reduced mortgage rates. But they have given us more expensive food, oil, labor costs, etc. I think this is also called inflation. I think inflation is bad.
So does the government start paying for our oil & our food too?
The economy is like nature. We think as far as the current real estate disaster you let it run its coarse. Your type, or the Feds type of intervention simply seem to be making matters worse. I'm sure your CNBC friend Maria misses her free rides on the Citi Corporate jets, but thats what happens when you forget about who you are supposed to be telling the story to.
How about trying to forget helping your pals on Wall Street that should go to jail, and start to try helping the average investor who was raped by the banks, mortgage bankers, home builders and investment bankers that took one too many free rides themselves. Why pay the same bar tab twice?
3-04-2008 @ 4:09PM
Phillip said...
Jim, those are nice ideas, but the best solution doesn't involve guarantees and lower interest rates.
The problem lies with the high supply of unsold homes and the falling housing prices and a large tax burden!
How is this easily corrected without creating CPI numbers through the roof?
Simple.
Get Uncle Sam to offer tax credits to buy houses. This will significantly and quickly decrease the excess supply, decrease the American people's tax burden, without increasing inflation significantly.
"TO US GOVT:
Consumers need help! Ease off the taxes yo!"
Jim, please forward the above message to everyone you know. Thank you.
Phillip
http://www.mylifechanger.com