Further, these days analysts say it doesn't take a Ph.D. in statistical multiple regression to identify a factor that's driving oil higher. Pick a factor: any factor. Chinese demand. Surging emerging-market economic growth. The Iraq War. Nigerian civil unrest. Chavez's latest speech. Turkish military incursions of Kurdistan. The rush to find a return on assets. Concern about inflation. The falling dollar. Refinery problems here. Refinery problems there. Each has helped to drive oil to new heights. And when several come into play at once, oil leaps forward the way Mickey Mantle surged toward first base in 1951.

What factor has been left out of the above equation? Ironically, of late it's been the U.S. consumer. That's right John and Jane Smith, who've actually been cutting back their driving, due to oil's cousin, near-record $3-per-gallon unleaded gasoline. In the past five weeks, U.S. gasoline consumption has declined -- something that hasn't occurred in more than 15 years. But the oil markets shrugged that off for the way 7-year-old kids shrug off their Mom's request to eat their vegetables. Despite the drop in U.S. gasoline consumption, the price of oil found a way to rise $12 during that time period. So much for the gasoline demand/oil price theory.

Bubble schmubble

Some are saying an oil bubble, as well as a more-general commodities bubble, is developing, following on the heels of the tech/dot-com and housing bubbles that preceded it, as institutions frantically pour hundreds of billions of dollars and euros into oil and other commodities, in the rush to secure returns not currently attainable from U.S. stocks. But don't mention the term 'oil bubble' to independent energy trader Jim Dietz, who, not once, not twice, but three times lost "at least a Caribbean vacation" calculating that the price of oil would fall these past few weeks. It didn't. Oil doesn't fall, it seemingly simply corrects, and marches ahead. And Dietz is no longer an oil bear. Come to think of it, don't mention the term 'bear' around Dietz for awhile, either.

On Wednesday OPEC meets. OPEC officials Tuesday repeated their party line: the markets are well supplied, the Associated Press reported. Plenty of oil in the world. OPEC's concerned that oil prices will drop substantially this spring due to the slow-growth (or no growth) U.S. economy. No need to increase oil production. Prices will moderate, they say.

One can understand why the reader might be skeptical regarding that last statement.