Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) stock is trading lower this morning on reports that competitor Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is beginning tests of new business programs to be offered as online services. MSFT is attempting to increase its presence in a sector of the software industry where it is uncharacteristically behind the curve, which could be a bad sign for ADBE. Yesterday, cellphone manufacturer Nokia (NYSE: NOK) announced it would start to support Microsoft's Silverlight, a direct competitor of Adobe's Flash. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ADBE.
After hitting a one-year high of $48.47 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $32.08 last month. This morning, ADBE opened at $33.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $32.01 and a high of $33.08. As of 12:45, ADBE is trading at $32.34, down $0.73 (-2.2%). The chart for ADBE looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bear-call credit spread above the $37.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in one and a half months as long as ADBE is below $37.50 at April expiration. Adobe would have to rise by more than 15% before we would start to lose money.
ADBE hasn't been above $37.50 since early January and has shown resistance around $36 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy turns around strongly in the next month, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance ADBE might find at its 50 day moving average, which is currently around $37 and falling.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MSFT or NOK. He does control a bullish position in ADBE.
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