Hillary can't wait for Pennsylvania

Posted Mar 5th 2008 5:21PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Other Issues, Politics

Tuesday's primary victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island gave Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, about all her campaign could hope for: solid performances and a chance to close the delegate gap in the next primary, in Pennsylvania on April 22.

Still, the delegate math remains rough for the candidate seeking to become the first woman nominated for president by a major U.S. political party. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, leads in delegates, 1477-1391, including pledged superdelegates, according to a Washington Post tally, and the Clinton campaign's strategy will now be to try to close the delegate gap to 60 or so with a win in Pennsylvania. Two caucuses, Wyoming and Mississippi, occur before the Pennsylvania primary, and Sen. Obama is expected to win each and increase his delegate lead heading into Pennsylvania.

In 187-delegate Pennsylvania, the demographics favor Sen. Clinton -- she's leading in statewide polls there - - and the Clinton campaign likes its chances. Pennsylvania has a large working class -- which, along with women voters and Latin-Americans, forms the bulk of Clinton's base. If Sen. Clinton registers a solid win in Pennsylvania, she can make the case that although Sen. Obama has the delegate lead, she has won in the major states of New York, California, Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and probably would have won in Florida, had the delegate count been included in the Democratic Party's nominating process. That big-state coalition, and the fact that she's the candidate of the working class, would be two strong philosophical points as the campaign attempts to secure pledges from the to-date 353 un-pledged superdelegates. (Note: The number of un-pledged delegates is likely to decline by the end of the primary season on June 3.)

Superdelegate factor

Moreover, speculation regarding the likely break-down of remaining un-pledged delegates, to paraphrase legendary Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward, is best avoided. That's because there are so many unknowns prior to the party's national convention in Denver in August -- not the least of which is the fact that the Democratic Party has not experienced a nominating process where superdelegates were a factor since 1984.

For example, it's assumed that pledged delegates will not switch loyalties, but that may not end up being the case. There's also a scenario in which Sen. Clinton leads the delegate count, including pledged superdelegates, heading into the national convention, but faces a legal challenge from Sen. Obama, on the grounds that he won the popular vote during the primary season, represents the will of the people, and therefore should be awarded the party's nomination on majority-vote grounds.

Political Analysis: The contest remains advantage-Sen. Obama, but if Sen. Clinton is able to register a solid win in Pennsylvania, the contest will more than likely come down to the superdelegates. In Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton the Democratic Party has two, trailblazing, A-list candidates engaged in an historic struggle for the party's leadership and direction in the early 21st century.

Tags: 2008 election, Barack Obama, Clinton, delgates, Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Mississippi, Obama, Ohio, Pennsylvania, primaries, Rhole Island, superdelegates, Texas, U.S. presdidency, Vermont, voting, Wyoming

Print this

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

3-12-2008 @ 9:06PM

tapsearcher said...

If the untold story below made news, Hillary would lose more than the PA Primary....
Hillary Clinton's convenient turnabout on NAFTA and free trade
Friday, March 07, 2008
Cleveland Plain Dealer Letters Editorial Page

Voters are shopping their jobs away at places like Wal-Mart and now are
vot ing their jobs away by supporting Hillary Clinton. Here is the real
timeline behind free trade:

1956 - U.S. government starts moving factories outside the United
States.

1970 - 120 factories moved from the United States to Mexico.

1980 - 400 maquiladora factories in Mexico.

1980s - While Hillary Clinton was on the Board of Directors of Wal-Mart,
about 1,000 U.S. factories were moved to Mexico.

1992 - 2,000 maquiladora factories in Mexico.

1994 - NAFTA is passed by a Democrat-controlled Congress and signed by
Democratic President Bill Clinton; number of factories moved to Mexico
doubles to more than 4,000; reports tell of "dirty manufacturing" in
Mexico causing health problems and birth defects.

1995 - President Clinton rushes $20 billion to save the Mexican economy.
Then he uses other means to rush even more money to Mexico. ( President
asked Congress for $40 billion but they gave him just $20 billion
instead- he said he would use other means to get the extra money to bail
out the Mexican peso )

1996 - Hillary says NAFTA is good for everyone.

2000 - Hillary, at an economic forum in Switzerland, praises business
efforts in supporting NAFTA.

None of the above stopped the flood of Mexican workers to the United
States seeking economic survival.

Now, after all of that, Hillary says free trade has to be tweaked at
bit.

See what ten Mexican Bishops think about NAFTA in their signed plea to
censure it.
http://www.bizarrepolitics.com/nafta-cultural-death

View the Clinton Years, The American Dream Reversed artwork by Ray
Tapajna at
http://tapsearch.com/clinton/