Well, all I can say is that today has been one of the worst days of my portfolio's life. I'm not concerned about my core holdings -- Disney (NYSE: DIS), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), General Electric (NYSE: GE), stuff like that -- but, boy oh boy, are my financial positions taking some major hits!
I know, I know -- you're saying to yourself, "uh, buddy, didn't you realize this was going to happen?" Sure, but when the theory becomes reality, that's when the torture really starts to set in. Not sure if you caught the wave of downgrades today -- if you didn't, check out Eric Buscemi's post about it -- but I got hammered by one of them. MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) was downgraded by Keefe Bruyette on book-value concerns. As I write this, it's trading down over 15% -- oooh, it hurts to write such a double-digit figure -- on, get this, volume of over 15 million shares. The 30-day average volume is closer to 4 million shares. I'm writing this with a couple hours to go to close! It's going to be a huge volume day once all is said and done. I also own Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT), CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) and MFA preferred shares (NYSE: MFA-A).
Have I been shaken out yet? No. In fact, in terms of MFA, I personally think that it is a buy, even though it could be in falling-knife mode right now (that's always difficult to discern). I know Timothy Sykes would disagree on this strategy, so you should check out his post for some balance. With Ben Bernanke most likely set to cut the Fed Funds rate even further, MFA should benefit, as should most financials. I also like CapitalSource, but I am a little wary at this point of Newcastle -- I think it will recover, but that one's been particularly volatile. As they say, when there's blood on Wall Street, that's sometimes the best time to do some judicious buying (after a ton of due diligence, of course). And, as a postscript, if you want to do only safe buying, then Disney, Coke and GE might be good ideas to look at -- GE has an especially interesting yield right now.
Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns shares in Disney, Coca-Cola, MFA common and MFA preferred, CapitalSource, Newcastle Investment, and GE. Positions can change at any time.










Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-06-2008 @ 4:55PM
Steve in Denver said...
My bet is that if the fed would show some cajones, and raise rates in an effort to strengthen the dollar, and tell all the crybaby banks and their stockholders to shut up, stock up on KY jelly, bend over and smile while their follies are washed out, all this hyper flatulant fear mongering about credit and mortgages would go away. There is a marvelous opportunity awaiting banks; people want to buy houses, and ther are houses to buy. Figure out a new credit instrument to accomodate them and do it.
3-06-2008 @ 5:15PM
tim said...
Why even risk it man? So what if the Fed cuts--you guys are underestimating how beyond repair many of those int he finance sector are. Gotta read more financial history books like "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds".
Leverage + Greed -->Bubbles--Fun for a while--> Inevitable Pain
There's no extra rewards for taking ridiculous risks, risks that you nor anyone else can quantify right now, just avoid finance altogether and you can't get hurt
3-06-2008 @ 5:18PM
tim said...
And in case anybody wants to debate me on this or ask me questions, visit my site
Tim
http://www.timothysykes.com