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U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 351K, better than expected

Initial jobless claims fell to 351,000 to for the week ended March 1 -- below the consensus estimate, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were revised up 21,000 to 375,000.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 360,000.

Also, the four-week moving average decreased 1,500 to 359,500. Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 23 were in Massachusetts, +3908, California, +3,022, Connecticut, +1,993, Louisiana, +1,851 and New Jersey, +1.494. The largest decreases were in North Carolina, -1,829, Indiana, -1,296, Pennsylvania, -1,118, Tennessee, -1,090, and Washington state, -981.

The number of continuing claims increased by 29,000 to 2.831 million from a revised 2.802 million for the week ended February 23, the latest period for which figures were available.

Economic Analysis: Again, a poor weekly statistic, one that continues to show a deterioration in employment conditions. However, the telling stat this week is the revision to last week's jobless claims -- revised up an alarming 21,000 to 375,000. If that trend continues, the U.S. economy is in recession. Further, the four-week moving average remains above the U.S. Federal Reserve's danger level of 350,000. The U.S. Federal Reserve considers a four-week average above 350,000 a signal of soft labor market conditions.

In addition, the high and rising number of continuing claims, which measures the seasonally adjusted uninsured, at 2.831 million, also indicates a tepid job market. Jobless conditions continue to worsen, and this is something both the Fed and the U.S. Congress cannot ignore as they seek to right the U.S. economy in 2008.

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Last updated: October 07, 2008: 06:18 PM

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