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Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) shares opened higher this morning but have slipped throughout the day after the company posted a fourth-quarter profit of $53.6 million, or 32 cents per share, helped by fewer markdowns and increased same-store sales. Analysts had been expecting URBN to post a profit of 29 cents per share. Today's weakness could be attributed to some bad retail reports from other companies, but comparatively, URBN's performance today is not too bad. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on URBN.After hitting a one-year low of $19.20 in July, the stock hit a one-year high of $31.32 in just this past month. URBN opened this morning at $30.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.94 and a high of $30.45. As of 12:30, URBN is trading at $29.01, down $0.33 (1.1%). The chart for URBN looks bullish and deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) Buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 13.6% return in just one and a half months as long as URBN is above $25 at April expiration. URBN would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money.
URBN hasn't been below $25 by more than a little bit since November and has shown support around $29 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy really sours some more in the coming months, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 200 day oving average, which is just below $25 and rising.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in URBN.
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