Alcoa (AA) tumbles on downgrade

Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) stock is falling after a FBR analyst downgraded the stock to "Market Perform" from "Outperform." The analyst added in a note to investors that he is concerned that fundamentals will slide in the second quarter if aluminum supply is able to meet demand. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on AA.

After hitting a one-year high of $48.77 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $26.69 in January. This morning, AA opened at $37.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.39 and a high of $37.90. As of 12:50, AA is trading at $36.70, down $1.67 (-4.3%). The chart for AA looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bear-call credit spread above the $45 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in one and a half months as long as AA is below $45 at April expiration. Alcoa would have to rise by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

AA hasn't been above $45 since July and has shown resistance around $40 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy bottoms and picks up, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance AA might find around $40, where the stock found resistance back in November.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AA.