The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] reports that banks lent a mind-boggling $32 for every dollar of equity in Carlyle Capital, the credit defaulting mortgage investment joint venture between Carlyle Group and Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA). This demonstrates that while leverage can magnify returns in an up-market, it can also magnify losses in a down one.
The cause for both bankruptcies was that banks made a margin call -- a request for some of their loan to be repaid immediately -- and neither party was willing to cough it up. In the case of Thornburg's $28 million cash call, it is a bit less surprising that it could not come up with the money. But Carlyle Capital's parent is an $80 billion private equity firm -- so it's interesting that it chose not to fork over the $37 million the banks wanted.
What's going on here is that our capital markets depend on the health of Wall Street banks. The banks are running out of capital because the value of their assets -- particularly asset-backed securities (ABSs) such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) -- are plummeting. As those assets drop in value, banks need to write down those values and raise capital to maintain their capital ratios -- for example, Citigroup's (NYSE: C) target ratio of capital to assets -- its so-called Tier One Capital Ratio -- is 7.5%.
Hedge funds, like Carlyle -- that invest in CDOs -- are extensions of the banks -- linked to them through the money they borrow to buy those CDOs. As the value of their collateral declines, the banks realize that the hedge funds will not be able to pay back the money they borrowed. That's because there is no active market for those CDOs that might be willing to pay the hedge funds so they, in turn, could pay back the banks.
The failure of these hedge funds to pay back the money they borrowed makes things worse for the banks. This matters because hedge funds manage $1.9 trillion worth of clients' money. I am not sure about this, but if that $1.9 trillion is treated as equity and those hedge funds borrowed $32 for every dollar of that equity, the hedge funds would owe $60.8 trillion to the banks.
Since hedge funds are so lightly regulated, public information about how much they've borrowed is hard to come by. But let's say that 20% of the hedge funds' assets were invested in CDOs -- assuming they borrowed $32 for every dollar of equity that would mean they owed the banks $12.2 trillion which would be backed by $12.5 trillion worth of CDOs on the hedge funds' books.
But if those $12.5 trillion CDOs are now worth, say, 25% of their stated value, or $3.1 trillion, then the banks are going to be nervous about the $9.1 trillion gap between the value of the collateral and the amount the hedge funds borrowed. And they'll look for a way to force the hedge funds to pay back that $12.2 trillion. If the hedge funds don't happen to have that money available, they'll default just like Carlyle Capital did. This will mean huge additional write-offs for the banks.
And of course investors in these hedge funds will be scrambling to get their sliver of equity out. Unfortunately, for them, the exit doors are barred. But while these wealthy investors knew the risks, many may not have thought that those risks would apply to them.
Unfortunately the hedge funds are not the only ones freezing investors' money. As I posted, The $330 billion Auction Rate Securities (ARS) market is also freezing investors' money. But that's far worse -- because the investors were told that the ARSs were safe.
In 2007, Wall Street liked to brag about how the world was awash in liquidity. I did not find that particularly comforting because liquidity is not cash. As we're seeing now, liquidity is really negative cash -- it's money that has to be paid back. And given the lack of disclosure about how much hedge funds have borrowed and the value of the assets they bought with that leverage, the magnitude of that financial black hole is hard to measure.
And this reverse leverage is causing an implosion that will swallow and digest borrowers across the global economy.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citigroup shares and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-07-2008 @ 11:59AM
swimlaps123 said...
So Peter, you predicted that C could go to 15... it is increasingly likely that C and other banks' equity holders could be wiped out?
3-07-2008 @ 2:54PM
Keip Groff said...
The only people more treacherous and dummer than the commission house people are our politicians.
J K G FLA
3-07-2008 @ 6:22PM
Beltway Greg said...
Nothing wrong with liquidity. As a matter of fact that's precisely the problem at this moment. The real problem, and simple at that, is the value, or falling value of the underlying assets. People are walking away from their homes and loans because they've got the same narrow myopic perspective that caused the educated seemingly sophisticated investment bankers to make dodgy loans and create debt instruments that are incomprehensible to Warren the B. We live in a world that has become tremendously complex and stupidity guarantees you'll go broke. Many of our municipalities are run by politicians that can't even balance their own checkbooks let alone deal with investing pension funds for the future. The hedge funds saw them coming from a mile away, fed them a few Danishes, and sent them on their way with a stack of forms containing charts and graphs that they couldn't have understood even if they had taken the time to read them.
Perhaps the best comment today came from Chuck Prince who said that his compensation package is determined by a 3rd party outside of the Citi corporate structure. Makes you wonder as to who is really in charge of corporate America? It certainly wasn't Chuck. Enjoy the jet Mr. Prince.
Beltway Greg