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Barbarians at Carlyle's gates

Samuel Johnson once opined: "Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully."

This seems to be the feeling with the private equity folks at the Carlyle Group. Basically, they operate a troubled affiliate, Carlyle Capital. Unfortunately, the fund is chock-full of mortgage securities -- and, as a result, there are a variety of margin calls. Perhaps as much as $16 billion could be liquidated (in a market that doesn't want to make bids on any kind of mortgage paper).

So far, Carlyle's exposure is fairly light, with about $670 in capitalization (which includes Carlyle funds, associated investors and public shareholders). And confidence is at dire lows. After all, the shares of Carlyle Capital have been suspended (the fund is listed in Amsterdam).

No doubt, Carlyle is involved in intense discussions and is trying to secure a standstill with the creditors, which include firms like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC). But in the current environment, it's not easy to get financiers in a comfortable position. It seems that -- every day -- the markets continue to get worse. So why be optimistic?

In other words, it looks like Carlyle Capital may be a quick casualty of the snowballing credit crunch.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

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Last updated: July 20, 2008: 05:19 AM

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