TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you have to have a plan going in so you don't get forced out. Some days like Friday you throw out the book and you just say, OK, pick a couple of stocks to defend and let the rest run down without you or scale out of them on the bogus rally you know people will try to mount from an oversold position.
Days like Friday are all about trying not to lose a huge amount of money. They are days where you want to throw a brick at every manager who comes on TV and says, "We don't even look at this stuff because we are long term." You want to throw a brick because these are long-term-sized losses inflicted in a very short time.
Think about it. If I had a nickel for everyone who came on TV and said that the short-term action in Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) or Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) are "no concern of mine," I would be a trillionaire. Saying stuff like that is simply a way of saying, "I am lying to you or lying to myself, I don't know which," because the odds are not getting better that Fannie Mae will get back to $60 anytime in the long term.
Same with Citigroup or Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) or Ambac (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take) or MBIA (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take). Maybe this is a "historic" buying opportunity for ABK, but maybe there is no real earnings stream beyond munis, and maybe the muni industry has figured out that the insurance isn't saving them much anyway.
I don't know, but I do know that if you have no perspective on days like Friday, you will be forced out from the pain.
What I do is say, "OK, I am going to take a beating today, which is the price of entry for when stocks -- or at least the stocks that I am picking -- turn around. I hope the price of entry isn't too steep, but I also know that the prices of assets away from here aren't that terrific either." I am saying to myself that when the stocks of companies fall this fast, good things - not bad -- tend to happen to those stocks; companies that are doing well either buy up a lot of stock into the weakness or they just get bought, like Nationwide Financial (NYSE: NFS) (Cramer's Take) this morning.
What I don't do is say, "Why didn't I sell everything Thursday?!" I don't say that because, it, alas, does nothing for you and makes you nothing, so therefore it simply isn't worth saying.
Random musings: I thought the FNM article in Barron's this weekend was much more positive than they did. Pretty much the main way of keeping FNM common from being obliterated is to have the Fed examiners/SEC forbear on the situation until the company rebuilds capital over time. The equity that FNM has may be fictitious, but that's OK -- lots of statements are fictitious -- because the rules allow for fiction short term if it turns into fact later, and the idea that FNM will make more money in the years going forward after all the securitizing from other banks has vanished seems like a reasonable proposition to me. ... Sun Capital Partners is a typical story for the era. They had year after year of great performance and then they stumble. They act confident, they are confident, but are the investors confident? In all my time on Wall Street, I have seen only two articles about whether we'll pull out of a hedge fund: The ones about me after 1998 when I was up 1% vs. double-digit gains in the averages and the articles currently written about Eddie Lampert. ... Reassuring statements by Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) about Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take). Super. ... OK, here's a gutsy one you wont see elsewhere: Doug Kass is urging a short of an American icon.
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RELATED LINKS:
Coming Week: Awaiting a Bottom
Stock Futures Point to Slight Gains
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-10-2008 @ 12:14PM
jo said...
How is the economy Bush still OK for you and the tree huggers.
3-14-2008 @ 5:43PM
Americas Watchdog said...
Jim;
As always we like to read about your ideas. The bad news......there are going to be a lot more problems (Fridays). We have the National Mortgage Complaint Center & the Corporate Whistle Blower Center & the bad news is just at the starting gate.
We started working on "auction rate preferred shares a week ago. Its starting to look like a $500 billion dollar+ disaster. They were sold as "just like a CD". Now the investors can't get their money out.
We saw yesterday where Standard & Poors suggested "sub prime meltdowns were over". More thoughts from the Wall Street Crack House. S & P tagged the write downs at $265 billion. It will end up at more that $2 trillion dollars.
Uncle Ben & the Fed will lower rates in a couple of weeks (because the US Government says there is no inflation---bought gas lately?). The result will be higher everything to include food, gas, call girls for our nations CEO's, etc.
So we would suggest rather than buying Wall Street, perhaps get a couple of sacks of old silver quarters & bury them in your back yard.
Oh, forgot to mention one other thing (I'm a Republican)..........Republicans were actually defending CFC's Angelo for his "pay" this week in Congress? It really instills one with the idea that DC actually gets it. I'm surprised they didn't defend lenders for giving consumers the "pay option adjustable rate mortgage"(This product is the one that has CFC & WA MU collecting money from people getting onto the freeway with a sign that says (Really Dumb Mortgage Banker Can You Spare A Quarter----I Need To Get A Beer)
I'll close with one more thought. The newest turd to hit the punch bowl will be pension funds telling Grandma that she is only getting $0.65 on the dollar this month, because they bought MBS's from Wall Street that in fact were only worth $0.65. The problem..........the pension fund paid a buck.
By the way. What Ever Happened To The SEC? SEC? We don't need no stinking SEC"!