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Morningstar: eBay is 41% undervalued, Cisco 35%

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A Morningstar advertisement asking "Is The Market Cheap Yet? We Think It Is" got my attention in a recent issue of Barron's. Promoting its Equity Research service, Morningstar discusses the NASDAQ sell-off this year, stating that in July of 2007 the market was 6% overvalued, but now it is 15% undervalued.

The ad goes on to state that eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) is trading at a 41% discount to Morningstar's estimate of value and that Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trading at a 35% discount. At the time, eBay was trading at $28.81, but it closed at $25.72 yesterday making the stock 52.7% undervalued by their measure. Cisco was then $24.94 and last night closed at $23.99, so it is now 38.8% below fair value.

Of course it is their intention to give you something to salivate over and these figures would do it. I wonder how much these stocks will be undervalued next month, and when they will flash the buy sign? Adding back the discount to the stocks to what Morningstar deems fair value brings eBay to $40.62 and Cisco to $33.66. These figures are very close to the respective 52 week highs of $40.73 and $34.24.

I'm always surprised when analysts can determine value with such precision. I would think that they would be much more realistic if they would discuss value in terms of a range. In any event, I'm sure most investors will be overjoyed if they are correct.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of EBAY.

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Last updated: November 14, 2009: 11:06 AM

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