A Morningstar advertisement asking "Is The Market Cheap Yet? We Think It Is" got my attention in a recent issue of Barron's. Promoting its Equity Research service, Morningstar discusses the NASDAQ sell-off this year, stating that in July of 2007 the market was 6% overvalued, but now it is 15% undervalued.
The ad goes on to state that eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) is trading at a 41% discount to Morningstar's estimate of value and that Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trading at a 35% discount. At the time, eBay was trading at $28.81, but it closed at $25.72 yesterday making the stock 52.7% undervalued by their measure. Cisco was then $24.94 and last night closed at $23.99, so it is now 38.8% below fair value.
Of course it is their intention to give you something to salivate over and these figures would do it. I wonder how much these stocks will be undervalued next month, and when they will flash the buy sign? Adding back the discount to the stocks to what Morningstar deems fair value brings eBay to $40.62 and Cisco to $33.66. These figures are very close to the respective 52 week highs of $40.73 and $34.24.
I'm always surprised when analysts can determine value with such precision. I would think that they would be much more realistic if they would discuss value in terms of a range. In any event, I'm sure most investors will be overjoyed if they are correct.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of EBAY.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-11-2008 @ 5:43PM
SandyPurrins said...
EBay stock undervalued? Are you kidding me? EBay is a mess right now. Meg quit and the new guy alienated the vast majority of sellers BEFORE he even took over. They are being sued by Tiffany's over counterfeit items on their site. They are also being sued for violating the Sherman Act by tying Paypal in with eBay. Please! They have changed the item search to "best match", which is confusing as heck and now they've got auctions and fixed price listings set up with a split screen on their homepage! It's a horrible way to list items. They are totally clueless right now. Run away from this company as fast as you can! Overvalued is more like it, IMO.
3-12-2008 @ 11:47AM
Butch said...
Ebay is Dying!! The Monster has consumed it all and is DONE!
Ebay is now at the point where it cannot grow anymore. The new CEO made sure of that with his "kill the Seller" program.
The only reason Ebay stocks moved is because the whole economy has moved. If you look at it in perspective with everything else....Ebay has stopped growing and is now going backwards rapidly!
3-12-2008 @ 12:05PM
Sheldon L said...
All of the folks who feel wronged by eBay should rethink their positions. Ebay has billions of data points telling them exactly what is working and not working.
I agree growth has stagnated and Skype seems to be a misdirected waste of time and money to date but eBay has good cash-flow and will move higher.....although I don't see what Morningstar sees.
3-12-2008 @ 2:27PM
Mozelle said...
Finally!
Someone who sees eBay for what it truly is! I see what morningstar sees. I too believe eBay is way undervalued. eBay should be 60-100 already.
eBay is king in it's field. No one can come close to eBay. No start-up can catch eBay. And no company in their right mind would ever try! lol
eBay is cleaning house right now! And rightly so!
They can afford to do that. They have a war chest of money! Pay-pal is doing great business. Paypal will replace most credit cards in this country! eBay will write off Skype and continue on making money! eBay is not all about auctions!
I see what morning star sees. A great company!
eBay is an excellent buy right now!
3-13-2008 @ 3:41PM
gumby said...
I bought a new 1 gb RAM module PC3200 400mhz for $22 plus $10 S/H. I cant find any like that for less than $50 anywhere... Also I won the auction bid on a pair of slightly used 120mb 7200 rpm 8mb buffer Seagate hard drives for only $44 plus $10 S/H. I cant find any like that for less than $50 each harddrive. I guess I make or save more money shopping Ebay than anywhere.. Ebay is a good place to shop for cheap... Sometimes, I lost the auction bids becuase goods can be so popular that people are overpaying for them than other stores.. Ebay is great! I want to own Ebay stock but Wall Street cant find where its head is now.. It s rolling away somewhere...
3-13-2008 @ 3:46PM
gumby said...
The only beef I have with Ebay is as a seller I am nervous about using my home address as a return address for shipping stuff I sold to...I have to find a business address to use as a selling address so nobody can find where I live... Ebay is not thinking thrououghly about the securtiy for sellers.
3-13-2008 @ 3:47PM
gumby said...
I need a fictional address to store at Ebay so that when buyers are not satisfied with the goods I sold can return them to me through Ebay coded address routing program or something like that... Maybe Ebay can work with delivery companies to set up secure fictional addresses so buyers cant know where I live... I dont want to bother with finding a business address as I dont want to pay rent for a business address or anything like that... Many Ebay sellers are shipping stuff out of home addresses and I think they are not wise...
3-15-2008 @ 9:50PM
freebirdtim said...
Sorry, Mozelle, the king is dead. EBay WAS a great place at one time, but now it's full of junky 99 cent auctions with ten bucks shipping. EBay's only appeal is their auctions, but they are trying to eliminate that part of their website. They are encouraging fixed price listings to mimic Amazon. Bad idea. Amazon is a joy to deal with and a very secure website. EBay cannot compete with them, since they are a pain to deal with and a very unsafe website. And their Paypal payment service is shady, to say the least. They do everything in their power to get you to pay with your bank balance instead of with a credit card. Sleazy practice, IMO. Sell EBay stock ASAP or you'll kiss your investment goodbye. It will NEVER go to $40 again, ever. They have mismanaged it to death.
3-19-2008 @ 6:44PM
woodykid said...
If in the next 5 years Ebay is not above 40 I will make a t-shirt that says "Ebay haters were right...I suck and so does Ebay." I'll fly to their HQ and take a picture and allow anyone that wants to post it in their listings at other web sites as well as blogs. In the meantime...let's talk about Amazon. I was considering trying to sell there since everybody is saying they are Soooooo much better than Ebay to list items on. I was actually commenting at other posts that Amazon was a viable alternative to Ebay. I wanted to put my money where my mouth was so I decided to try and list some items. So bottom line for those that wanna skip the deatils. I was wrong! Way Wrong. Amazon is GAAAAY! It Cannot be considered a vaiable alternative for anybody that is upset with Ebay's new policies...theirs are much worse! Period. End of story. Want me to try some other site the rest of the world has never heard of like Ecrater or iOffer - You're just asking for fraudulent transaction 10x worse than anything will ever happen on Ebay! Don't believe me - I don't care and obviously most other sellers on Ebay don't either. Period. Say what you want, most sellers staying with Ebay don't comment because they're too busy selling and making money with no time to voice the fact they thy are still very much satisfied. That's it - no one can provide any proof contrary.
Anyway about amazon in detail... hmmm let's see, they have absolutely no way to sell auction style. You can't sell in many categories, BECAUSE THEY LIMIT THE amount of sellers - BS! - they are protecting themselves - they don't care about the sellers - they want to limit competition within their own store. That means Amazon will never be a viable alternative to Ebay - because the Amazon sellers compete with AMAZON. Try selling a wii if you doubt me. Second - wanna complain about fees - look at theirs up to 15% You Ebay complainers don't have a clue. Oh and like their best sellers have feedback of 90% or so, and they cannot even respond to negative feedback left about them - and sellers cannot leave feedback towards buyers. It's much tougher than Ebay's new policies. However I must say that does not change the fact that many people still sell items there and many buyers buy items from sellers with more realistic feedback. Apparently Ebay is making the right moves. Amazon nor any other of the disorganized no-name-recognition sites have any real alternative for Ebay. You've got a hundred plus sites with the defecting sellers getting spread all around in no organized way. Very few sellers will be able to sustain any store front without a lot of costs and time in hosting and advertising their own web-site. That's cool - but let's face it -before Ebay how many sellers would ever have been in a position to open their own stores online...hmm one maybe two? So if you do well...congrats you're only doing well because you got your start on Ebay - not because you're some genius of business person. Move on - quit being one of those commenters that feels Ebay owes them something...Ohhh I forgot - you made Ebay not the other way around.
Bottom line - Ebay has no viable competition - Ebay is a cash machine, not just now but in the future with it's paypal, craiglist, half.com, hundreds of international sites, and I'll even say Skype..I think they did overpay - but I still think Ebay will eventually be able to monetize on it! Skype is everywhere around the world. It's getting to be like a monopoly of voip - which is good for a stock. The US is still behind here but I'm speculating that Skype might turn out to be good in the long run for Ebay. Nonetheless my offer stands - in five years - reply to this comment - let me know who's right. Anybody want to make any counter offers - what will you do if Ebay has gone above 40 in five years?
3-21-2008 @ 12:13AM
Mozelle said...
Hi ,Woodykid! I will respond!
If in 5 years eBay has not risen above $40.00 I will personally fly to California....Call their local TV station...(Making sure everyone sees me;) And right infront of eBay Building proceed to sell my own T Shirts that say....
"EBay Stock Holder." written on my back...And
"I Am Bankrupt and Starving Thanks To eBay" across my chest! I will be 67 years old by then.
I will be wailing and wailing. And I mean WAILING! And BOOHOOING right into the TV camera!
I will hope to sell several million T Shirts;) Why you ask? Answer...Because there will be millions in that same situation along with me. I will ask them to join me. lol. We can all wail and cry together!
On a more serious note about eBay. I agree with you that eBay is better than Amazon as a seller venue all the way around. A small seller can't even get with Amazon. Not enough catagories for one. And no auctions. Big sellers pay way more than they would with eBay... eBay is still the best play in town for the average seller.
I used to sell on Amazon. I sold my own books. Here's the deal with Amazon advantage..it's a fee of $45.00 per year. You ship ex amount of books to their warehouse...and if you sell a book for $35.00 like mine sold for, they received $15.00 dollars per sale. They pay you once per month.
You must constantly supply them with books, and you pay to ship to their warehouse! ( you have three days to get the books to them) lol...Not that great a deal, lol. If a book has a flaw from shipping...they destroy the book and demand another book, lol.
What people don't realize with eBay is that nothing stays the same. eBay has to move with the times if they wish to succeed. Some sellers will make it big time under the new fee structure...and some will fall by the way side. That is life!
But eBay had to do something! Things were getting out of hand. Sellers would retaliate against buyers giving them negative feedback! That has to be STOPPED.
There are Rogue sellers and they needed to be stopped! There are crazy buyers, who want everything for nothing, they will complain over nothing just to get the merchandise for nothing. Or not pay!( I call them bottom feeders) they also need to be stopped.
I believe once eBay has all the new kinks worked out of the system, they will be off and running!
This new system actually forces people to list lower or actual shipping for an item while at the same time make them list an item for it's real worth. (Not list for 99 cents and shipping ($9.99) for a small item. It will be the other way around. List ($9.99) shipping maybe (2.50-3.50) depending on weight.
This alone will make eBay the money they deserve to have! They are a business. And as such deserve to make money!
Some people just don't get it and never will. They will spend their time complaining. Others will make tons of money. By Christmas eBay stock should look pretty good. Providing the economy holds up that is. Right now sales are slow everywhere. People are not buying much.
All in all eBay has a war chest of money! They will do fine. Pay-Pal and all their other holdings make tons of money.
Right now is the time to buy eBay...not sell. lol.
3-21-2008 @ 3:57PM
woodykid said...
finally, a very respectable comment. I was beginning to think this blog was only attractive to the handful of ebay sellers that had not a clue how to run a business. I've got this bookmarked so hopefully there will be no reason for us to see each - other in 5 years ... but if we do...here's to 5 years of a crazy economy.