Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) has surprised some investors these past six months or so by putting up more than decent earnings results. After yesterday's huge rally, Wal-Mart has nudged up over $50 per share. At this level, the company's market cap has also just crossed over the $200 billion mark. But is the stock a buy here at $50 and a $200 billion cap and what are its near term prospects?

It has been hinted strongly that in this consumer-led slowdown that millions of Americans are "shopping down" on daily staples at Wal-Mart instead of going to pricier competitors. If this is a temporary phenomenon, Wal-Mart should see a good April 30th quarterly result with momentum building to the July 31st quarter.

Long term, however, Wal-Mart is more of a market performer than an out-performer. Consensus estimates for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2009 calls for revenue of $405 billion and EPS of $3.40 and for fiscal year 2010, revenues of $435 billion and EPS of $3.75. Barely 10% growth of earnings and less than 10% growth of revenues. With the stock trading at a 13 PE multiple of fiscal year 2009, many would say the shares are more than fairly valued. In a difficult market as we have experienced, Wal-Mart became a safe place to hide money. The shares are up 14% this year which is outstanding performance vis a vis the rest of the market.

Wal-Mart may trade up to the $53-55 level before the year is finished, but as I mentioned it is not the best long term story in the big box retail segment. If the economy improves in the second half of the year, consumers may begin to "shop up" again, which would leave Wal-Mart with its traditional shopping base. That base is not enough to propel strong same store sales which is the life blood of big box retailers.

Georges Yared write about great growth stocks today in Game On Investing