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BloggingStocks Interview: Looking at the wild, wild wireless world

Wireless companies like Sprint (NYSE: S) and Virgin Mobile (NYSE: VM) are ailing. Yet, at the same time, there are several new entrants into the space, such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).

So, what's going on? Well, I had a chance to interview Frank Dickson, who is a wireless expert and the Chief Research Officer at MultiMedia Intelligence.

What's your take on Sprint? Is the industry undergoing some disruptive changes?

We are seeing some disruptive changes on a macro scale. They are not the cause of Sprint's problems though. The problem with Sprint is self-inflicted, much of which finds its roots in the Nextel merger.

What we have seen of late is a huge movement towards cellular operators becoming bandwidth providers. Voice is quickly becoming a commodity application running over their networks. All the major carriers have announced all the voice minutes that you can eat for $99. Sprint one upped with a super buffet of voice, data, and messaging for $99. The constituencies that most hate the term "dumb pipe" are ironically the entities that are driving the bandwidth provision competition as differentiation based on service offering gives way to price competition.

In this new era, an operator's effectiveness in cost effectively operating its network will be become the new basis for competition. Obliviously, scale matters in this war.

The bandwidth provider trend feeds one of the macro trends that we saw for 2007 of a transition of mobile handsets into open platforms. The iPhone initiated a new handset market dynamic. Google's Android and a rumored Java-based OS are the next elements of a developing trend. Motorola's (NYSE: MOT) taking 50 percent stake in UIQ, a software platform based upon Symbian OS, cemented the trend.

Essentially, we are seeing the rise of a new class of mobile devices that are application-centric with voice functionality. These devices are internet browsers, music players, text messengers, and e-mail devices first... and they still make voice calls. Operators such as Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) are responding to the coming explosion of this product class and have embraced it by opening their networks. New market combatants such as Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) see this as an opening to penetrate wireless with a new class of products as well.

Also, what about what's happening with the iPhone? Your take on the Software Development Kit (SDK)?

In the Arizona, we have a phrase that we use, "This ain't my first rodeo." The phrase is aptly used here: This ain't Apple's first rodeo. The lessons learned from the Mac and then the iPod are being applied to the iPhone.

Apple is, at its very core, a company that provides elegant hardware solutions enhanced with innovative software. The value of an electronics platform type device is proportional to the content and the ecosystem available to be used on the device. The SDK allows for the creation of a third party developer network that is creating new software for or porting existing applications to the iPhone. Every new application enhances the usability and the value of the iPhone.

Please note the story is much more than about the SDK. Apple's execution includes three parts: (1) the SDK, (2) a testing feature to allow for the refinement and validation of the application, and (3) a marketplace to sell and distribute third party applications. The lessons of past Apple market battles are blending to a cohesive and elegant market strategy to enhance the value of the iPhone. Like I said, this ain't Apple's first rodeo.

And, what's your view on the new iFund, which is a new venture fund for the Apple platform?

The iFund is a good approach to fund new start-ups. The iPhone is a new, promising hardware platform. Funding companies at the beginning of the wave is a good strategy.

I will temper the enthusiasm a bit though. According to the VC firm's John Doerr, the size of the fund "should be enough to start a few Amazons (NASDAQ: AMZN) or Yahoos (NASDAQ: YHOO)." Personally, I think the goals of starting a few Amazons or Yahoos is a bit grandiose. Those are winners of one of the significant events of the 20th century, the Internet. The iPhone is a significant market development, but it is clearly not as significant as the formation of the Internet. However, we may see some innovative companies arise from the fund.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

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Last updated: May 18, 2008: 10:44 AM

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