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McDonald's (MCD) in the green despite weak economic indicators

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MCD logoMcDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) shares are rising today despite an overall weak market that got a litany of bad news. There was bad news on the housing front in terms of higher foreclosures. There was bad news about the credit industry from Carlyle. There were weak retail numbers. Oil hit $110 and gold hit $1,000. Yet investors are pushing McDonald's higher today, perhaps with the expectation that bad economic news is actually good for MCD, as casual diners may downgrade their habits to fast food as their wallets get pinched. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MCD.

After hitting a one-year low of $42.50 last March, the stock hit a one-year high of $63.69 in December. MCD opened this morning at $53.40. So far today the stock has hit a low of $53.40 and a high of $54.61. As of 12:45, MCD is trading at $54.36, up $0.66 (1.2%). The chart for MCD looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 13.6% return in just over one month as long as MCD is above $50 at April expiration. McDonald's would have to fall by more than 8% before we would start to lose money.

MCD hasn't been below $50 by more than a few cents since September and has shown support around $53 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy continues to worsen, but even if that happens, this position could be protected support the stock might find just above $50, where it bounced back in January.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MCD.
Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-223.328,280.74
NASDAQ-49.201,796.52
S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 05, 2009: 02:20 PM

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