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Before the bell: Investors await inflation data

Stock futures were lower early morning, ahead of inflation data coming out an hour before the opening bell. It is likely that futures will continue to drift this way and that until the data is reported and only then will we see a clear direction of the session ahead. A speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke could affect sentiment as well.

On Thursday, stocks started their journey with deep losses due to Carlyle Capital fund announcing it's near collapse, but later changed direction to finish the day on the positive side. The Dow industrials ended Thursday up 35 points, or 0.29%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 19 points, or 0.88%, and the S&P 500 advanced 6 points, or 0.51%.

The economic calendar today is not busy, but it is meaningful.
  • At 8:30 a.m. EDT, February consumer price index will be reported. This closely watched inflation indicator is expected to show inflation rose 0.3% in February, lower that the 0.4% rise in January. Similarly, core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, likely increased by 0.2%, down from January's 0.3%. Any big surprises that may show inflation at the consumer level is much higher than expected (it is already higher than the Fed's "comfort zone") could put a crimp on the Fed's ability to cut interest rates when it meets next Tuesday. The markets could then have a strong reaction as such rate cuts have been widely expected.
  • Then, at 10:00 a.m., the March preliminary University of Michigan's consumer confidence index is set to be released. Economists expect the to drop to 69.5 from 70.8, according to Briefing.com.
  • At 12:30 p.m., Fed chief Bernanke is to speak on sustainable homeownership in Washington, and investors will likely tune in hoping to hear more about the economy and the growing threat of inflation.
Oil prices retreated Friday from a record of $111 a barrel hit in the previous session to $109.96 a barrel, with analysts attributing the decline as part of the volatility that has characterized crude futures trading in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the dollar rose from a record low against the euro and traded above 100 yen as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley speculated central banks will intervene for the first time in 13 years to shore up the U.S. currency.

Still, overseas, Asian stocks declined with Japan's Nikkei losing 1.5%.
In Europe, after readings suggested that consumer price inflation in the euro-zone rose at an annual pace of 3.3% in February, an all-time high. European markets edged higher though.

Newspapers reported that Carlyle Group could offer investors of Carlyle Capital compensation. Shares of the fund rose in London.

Also in the news, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C)'s new chief executive Vikram Pandit received $3.16 million in total compensation during 2007. The bank's woes increased in 2007, but to convince Pandit to stay with the troubled bank,Citigroup's board in January signed off on awards valued at about $102 million. Perhaps if he manages to help the bank, it will be worth it?

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 08:55 AM

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