Friday morning, lost in the midst of another bad day in the market, Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) reported that it would be cutting its dividend to increase cash for additional liquidity and possible share buybacks. As the stock price has gone down, the trailing dividend yield continued to rise. When I bought at $12.50, the yield was about 22%. The trailing yield as of Friday's close was 32.50% at a stock price of $8.60. Looking forward the current payout will be $0.25 per share, decreasing the yield to about 11% going forward.
The lower yield is in line with the level of distributions made before the financial crisis, but many investors since were looking to enjoy the higher yields given their now higher level of market risk. The stock lost $1.64, almost, 16% on this news and the overall negativity, caused in part by one of the Carlyle Groups investment vehicles Carlyle Capital collapsing and Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) news on Friday that it was remaining open but only as a ghost of its former self with the help of the Federal Reserve and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). Of course, we all know that by Sunday afternoon it was announced that JPMorgan will be acquiring Bear Stearns for $2 share.
So what now, I have been asked. You can be sure I am asking myself the same question all the time -- what now? The failure of Bear Stearns to remedy its liquidity situation, understand the risks that put it in that situation, disclose the seriousness of the situation and leave investors open to speculation and fear by a lack of transparency creates a lot of doubt about whether Newcastle could be following this same path. I do not have an answer for that. The truth is that I don't know.
A few things I do know:
- Management disclosed at its recent conference call that the company had raised cash on hand to over $100 million and now hopes to increase its reserves more by reducing the dividend. At the current share price, the capitalization of the company stands $467 million. If the cash reserves equate to 20% to 25% of total equity, you would think the company should be sustainable. Unless the mention Friday of share buybacks was a deception, the company seems to have confidence in its survival and even higher share value.
- The dividend yield was attractive before and at 11% it is still relatively attractive.
- Commercial, industrial and retail real estate have not seen falling prices that would compare to the residential market. In the absence of specific news about NCT's loans failing, it seems to have been pulverized by circumstances. Call it being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
- I believe the financial markets that have lead to the tightening of credit and the halting of CMBS loans due to the acceptance of undue risk have probably not run their course but they have progressed to the point where any pretending that things are not that bad has stopped, and capitulation has arrived in most quarters, if not everywhere. Hopefully, we have seen the worst.
Newcastle shareholders and those of other companies in turmoil eventually must decide to buy, sell or hold onto their positions. I have sold positions in some of my financial stocks and held onto others. I certainly placed too much faith in Bear Sterns, which may turn out to be my biggest mistake of the year and I hope NCT does not duplicate it. However, I'm holding onto the shares in multiple portfolios.
I have fully disclosed my trading activity and stock ownership during my tenure on BloggingStocks, sometimes with pride, and in the case of BSC and a few others with great pain.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. He writes Chasing Value and Serious Money columns. Disclosure: I own shares of NCT and I guess the former BSC, perhaps now JPM.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-17-2008 @ 9:12PM
Mr. noitall said...
I don't think the near term future looks too bright for commercial, industrial, & retail real estate. I said that NCT was a high risk gamble and don't invest more than you are willing to lose. I invested but after hearing about the dividend cut I bailed out of the stock. Maybe it's a mistake but I think I should cut my losses here.