TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Moral hazard is a nice notion, but the market doesn't care. The Fed needs to take real steps to fix this problem now.Memo to Fed: Start bailing. There is a remarkable disconnect between the Federal Reserve's "plan" and what needs to be done and done now.
First, the Fed seems determined to not "bail out" anyone. But we need bailing. We need bailing now. We need them to go into the markets and buy hundreds of billions of dollars of Government-Sponsored Enterprise paper, Fannie and Freddie. That will address the inventory issue of all the firms on the Street and put needed capital into the system.
They have to drop this whole issue of who might be helped, and they have to prevent the barter system from overtaking us.
It's remarkable that even at this late hour they are tinkering with a quarter of a point to the discount rate.
They are dreamers.
And they are amateurs.
Tomorrow the Fed has to cut the fed funds rates right through the on-the-run two-year. They have to stay there until we get our house in order and everything can be refinanced at a price that will make the banks some capital.
We have to stop worrying about moral hazard. We have to start worrying about Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take). We have to stop fooling around with quarter points, we have to start worrying about a run on Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take).
We are now at the level where the president has to get involved. We are now at the point where we have to worry about the barter system. We have to start being concerned about whether trades clear in the system.
It's a crime that all of this could have been avoided. But it wasn't.
And now they have to accept that some very big banks are going to go bankrupt. If they don't get ahead of it, the banks that go under will be the biggest ones in the country.
That needs to be prevented.
I don't think they understand that.
I don't think they have the courage, the knowledge, or the conviction to do what they have to do.
RELATED LINKS:
Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
3-18-2008 @ 9:03AM
Bill Olmsted said...
Bottom Line:
It's a huge poop sandwich
and we're all going to have to
take a BIG BITE.
Earth to the White House and Congress: The fed can't do it alone. Read Alan Binder's column in this morning's Washington Post for some real insight.
3-18-2008 @ 9:47AM
Harry said...
you were so wrong on bear stearns prediction. Why are you still opening your mouth?
3-18-2008 @ 12:33PM
Ken Balaskovits said...
Jim Cramer is a free market advocate yet he wants the Fed to bail out the investment bankers. Seems like a bit of a contradiction. Let the free market do its job. Let's worry about the value of the dollar and how this is going to impact the day to day life of the average American
3-19-2008 @ 3:41PM
R. FRENCH said...
Where is Greenspan when we need him so desparately..current "leaders' are a total loss!
3-28-2008 @ 1:18PM
Jasper Thicket said...
"The Great American Dream=The Great American Scheme".
My Grandfather was President of a Detroit Bank for some 40-years. (He had immigrated with his family from Germany at the turn of the 20th century and worked his way up the ladder after the "Crash of 1929").
Just before his death in 1984--he cautioned members of the family. "Never trust the banks--they make the rules--they move the politicians--and their growing greed will take the country down".
I had just graduated from college. However, the greatest economic lessons we learned--came from daily life.
Since 21%+ inflation under Jimmy Carter in the late 1970's...and the invention of the ARM so folks could buy homes at 14% in 1980 or so...and after many years of serving in the USAF Department of Defense, U.S. Forest Service, FEMA and later as an International Business Consultant...it became clear to me by the mid-1990's that what had long been "mythologized" as the "American Dream"...was business and governmental political-incest masquerading as the much vaunted material dream of Home-ownership and sending the kids off to college...etc.
In fact, we have been living in the matrix of the "The Great American Scheme". We are about to experience the "Great Crash of 2009". (Historically it has already begun...but its greater effects will be felt in toto this coming year)
(Curiously enough...since history does repeat itself...because human nature does not change...just drop the zeroes in next year's date and you get "29"...hum...hum)
At any rate...I could expound volumes about the historical corrallaries that have been occuring the past several years and presently which are often identical to those leading to the Crash of 1929 and the coming Crash of 2009.
I have been warning friends and neighbors for several years...to invest in gold, silver, sound mining stocks, and food commodities.
We are now facing extreme shortages in food commodities like; Wheat, Barley, Oats, Rice etc.
Companies like NTRZ (Nutracea) may well rival or replace Gamestop and Nintendo stock favorites.
The warning signs have been like billboards to those of us who understood that because of the utter corruption of our political institutions...the fact that all the major industries from Pharma, Insurance, Utilities, Credit Cards, and Banks are the ones whose lobbyists literally sit in the offices of the Senate and the Congress tell congressional staffers how and what to write in new legislation...combined with an utterly corrupt judicial system...all the laudatory "checks & balances" are gone from our constitutional system.
We have an Executive Branch that holds the American people in contempt.
We have a Congress that views the public as "taxable sheep".
We have a Judicial Branch that simple "Processes" people like Meat in order to sap them of every dime and dollar possible, so as to expound, expand and engorge itself on the labor of the public.
Everywhere normal Americans turn...there is no Normal America left.
So, what now? Well, there is an immutable process and law which all systems must abide and succumb.
I call it the "Law of Systemic Circularity".
Birth--Growth--Maturation/Pinnacle of Advancement--General Entropy/Slow Decline--Rapid Decline--Death of the System.....Rebirth
This is an immutable process of the universe.
However, there is an escape hatch. There is only one way to "Forestall Entropy" indefinitely.
We are the only creatures on Earth or in the Universe that have the capacity to prevent Death by Entropy...but we seemingly never apply ourselves successfully to the task.
We have been given the divinely inspired ability to create technological advances which can be used to slow and even prevent total Entropy and destruciton of mankind.
However, our magnificient scientific advancements in all technological arenas so far have been overcome by the greed of men.
Example: I put forward a rather definitive proposal for a new vision for "vaulting" America into the new millenium--back in 1993. I was asked to provide my thesis to Jack Kemp at HUD (who unbeknowst to me was planning to run for President in 1994)...a copy to John Glenn and Ross Perot.
In a very brief "nutshell"...I called for the construction of a national "Mag-Lev" corridor to be constructed from Baltimore - to San Francisco/LA. The corridor would be built -- elevated down the center median of existing highway corridors of I-70 or I-80.
This proposal would still be creating thousands of jobs today.
The corridor would then have allowed for major cities like; Detroit/Toledo, Chicago, Pittsburg, OK
City, Dallas, Northern Tier, et. al. to form self-financing systems to create linking corridors which would eventually fan out over the entire nation.
(Instead the lack of vision by politicians has led to entropy of our road and bridge systems etc.)
(Floridians can thank Jeb Bush for killing the Mag-Lev here...which would have plainly prevented the enormously devastating effects of the housing bust here)
The "Big Three" automakers, airlines and trucking industry would all have expanded their manufacturing base and their profitabilty while gaining market share through expansion and change develpment in the marketplace.
The Big Three would be manufacturing the Passenger and Cargo Cars for the rail system...the trucking and airline industry would have had investment buy-in essentially reducing their demands on the national highway system and deadly congested airspace...by transitioning a portion of their transportation logistics to Mag-Lev systems.
(We invented this technology in the 1960's & 1970's...but because of vested banking and archaic corporate systems...Japan, Germany, France and China...are riding Mag-Lev systems)
Additionally, this idea would have facilitated the installation of both a "Trans-Continental" Fiber-optic line and a coast-to-coast pnuematic package mailing system (which could have been operated by the postal/UPS/FEDEX leasing system) to send 1-cube boxes within hours.
Fanciful, you say? Not at all. The puematic tube system has been around since the 1920's. Hill Air Force Base, Utah has one and they have been sending 25 lb boxes miles across the base for more than 25-years! Think of the speed and revenue and job expansion a little vision can create.
Proof of concept I believe lies in the following facts: At the time I generated this proposal...I estimated, this project could be built for approximately $10 million per mile --
I think it could have been done for about $70 billion.
Curiously enough. That same year...George Bush Sr., signed the "Intermodal Highway Transportation" bill (which literally was intended to provide federal tax money to the states to "fill potholes, pave/repave small sections of roads and some bridge repairs)...to the tune of $170 BILLION. Boy, that created a lot of jobs!
(if properly project managed...yes, I know look how rotten the PM was on the "Big Dig"...it can be done...I could still do it)
Imagine the impact of The Big Three having sole source contracts for an expanding national Mag-Lev system which would be have been "Just-In-Time" for the new millenium "gas" crucnch now.
When people are finally ready to transition to new forms of hybrid vehicles and mass tranportation, particularly in light of the public's frustration with commerical air transportation today.
Imagine, the thousands of lives saved from fewer heavy trucks needing to run the interstates. Trucking firms would have a nice "piece of the pie" and been able to do both...while the need for "Foreign" Oil would have been dealt a dramatic blow and our gas today would be about a $1.00 (largely because congress would maintain a 60 cent plus gas tax!)
Additional positive benefits would have meant...hundreds of thousands of jobs across some 20 states initially...then expanding across the rest of the primary continental states...possibly even one day to the great state of Alaska.
Imagine the jobs...the cargo goods industries, and off-shoot businesses in each area with Mag-Lev stops.
To quote scripture..."Where Kings lack vision...the people Perish" (ibid. kings)...
My proposal also called for the coversion of all closed military installations to convert to "feeder airports" with leased aircraft maintenance facilities, vehicle fleet maintenance and much more.
Finally, in short...I haven't seen a politician in 30-years that had a vision of where to take this country. Instead the Democrats focus on dividing the country into every conceivable ethnic and interest group possible in order to further feathering their personal empires...and the GOP has simply become the "Geriatric Old Party" of old notions, and the same corporate patronage that the Democrats covet.
(with one exception--Romney who came up with an ingenious method for rechanneling the social security witholding from the feds back to Taxachussets...thus eliminating their debt and creating a surplus and then resulting in a reduction to business of the percentage of business taxes paid out...and they were able to develop a more successful health care system as a byproduct of smart thinking)
So, what now? Well, the "Scarecrow and the Tinman have pulled the curtain back on Greespan, Bernanke, Rockefeller, Soros, Buffet, Bush, Hillary & Bill...and all the other power players with their hands on the Lever....and "Great American Dream" has been revealed to be the "Great American Scheme".
Ike warned before leaving office. Beware of the "military industrial complex". He wasn't just meaning the military industrial contractors (like KBR/Haliburton/Carlisle etc.) He was warning about all corporations taking ownership of our constitutional form of government.
There are so few truly honest people in government today...you could get most of them on a single Mag-Lev train.
Now...Entropy speeds up.
The major banks will fail. Ben cannot print the "trillions" it would take to shore them up...fast enough.
Gas/Diesel will rise and fall over time until the Big Three quicky produce a successful vehicle (Hybrid/Hydrogen) which can replace the combustion engine. Otherwise, the price will kill the trucking industry and trains will pick up the slack at a much slower, less responsive delivery rate.
(Incidentally, we have it and I have a simple solution for the Big Three to help save them...I am amazed at their inability to "think" themselves to success. I was an international business consultant to Chrysler International in the 1990's...they like, Ford and GM have the talent, but they are stuck being run by Engineers...who are great a designing things but can't manage their way out of crises and chaos...e.g.---Herbert Hoover--God Bless Lee Iaccoca though...he is a talent)
The Dollar is in ICU now....only a return to a Gold and Silver standard can save it now. Not the rush to an "AMERO".
Housing will not recover for 10-12 years...for there already hundreds of millions of empty homes that cannot be absorbed.
The entire financial system is imploding because of the horrid self-imposed complexity and greed of the system.
Recommendation:
Start acqurining a minimum of 1-2 years supply of food. (Pickup a couple extra cases of foods you like, beans, rice, wheat, flour, sugar, salt, etc. your'e gonna need them sooner than you think...it saved my grandparents during the depression)
Better start buying "Silver-Eagles" every pay day folks and setting them aside for the coming year or so. They are going to skyrocket.
Why Silver? Silver has farther to climb and shorter to fall...you can quote me on this.
Sprinkle your silver purchases with a bit' 'O Gold while your at it....diversify a bit.
Buy Food commodity stocks...since they are real.
If they tank...well you tried.
Take care of your kids and your family first...and tell the credit card companies and banks to "bag-it".
It is time now for real Americans to get real.
Stay home and play Monopoly with your kids...teach them how Monopoly works...since that was the first real game...that sparked the "American Dream".
Get up and Play the WII...get some exercise...play Dominoes, Canasta, have Friday Movie nights with your kids friends....buy a pinball machine, and a trampoline and help build your kids a tree-fort and teach them how to be "Creators" instead of "Gamers".
Ah...yes, 10-years from near...we will all recall those "Christmases" and the days of the "Roaring-Nineties & the "Early-Oughts"....and reminisce about how we used to walk to the "Bus-Stop" in front of our house to go to School.
Many new and wonderful things will come of the coming "Crash of 2009". There will be new wonderful music...(like Swing Era)...there will be different cars, (like the Chevy Volt)...there will be a new industry in America called "SuperBlogging" and they will become the Noveau-Riche.
Change is often a good thing...the question now is....can we as a people "Forestall our own Entropy" and return to the values that made our nation the "light of the world"?
Time to throw out the "American Scheme" and replace it with people with real vision.
Yours Truly American
Jasper Thicket