I-bank earnings to plunge: Lehman -63%, Goldman -61%, Morgan Stanley -55%

Three bellwether Wall Street names are expected to report earnings this week. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS). And the expectations are for huge declines in earnings.

I have done these earnings previews for commercial banks and I found that most of the earnings expectations were wildly optimistic. But here goes:

• Lehman: -63% from 2007's Q1 to $0.72 on March 18. First-quarter estimates have been falling on Lehman. Given Friday's announcement about The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) liquidity problems, Lehman's financial status will be more important than its earnings announcement.
• Goldman: -61% from 2007's Q1 to $2,58 on March 18. First-quarter estimates have been falling on Goldman which has not missed earnings expectations since 2005, though the trend in estimate revisions suggests this streak is at risk of being broken.
• Morgan Stanley: -55% from 2007's Q1 to $1.03 on March 20. Morgan Stanley has missed earnings expectations for two consecutive quarters. Forecasts for its fiscal first-quarter have fallen 31 cents over the past 30 days to $1.13 per share, reflecting downward revisions by more than half of the covering brokerage analysts.

Of these three, I believe Goldman is a great long-term holding. However, if it disappoints investors tomorrow, it could be available at a much lower price in the near future. If it beats expectations, however, today's close of $150 will look like a great entry point.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.