Time Warner (TWX) reaches new lows. Is it systemic or symptomatic?

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) hit a new 52-week low on Friday and again this morning. Shares traded as low as $13.65 today right after the open. This afternoon, shares are back up around $13.90, but that is just the level of last Friday's low. Since last Monday, shares have dropped from $14.84. At the beginning of the year, share price sat at $16.51. The high in 2007 was $21.97.

If you look at the current situation at Time Warner compared to other media stocks and other cable stocks, the one-third loss in share price from last year looks systemic to the industry rather than symptomatic of problems at TWX.

In other words, the market and economic trends seem more of the problem plaguing the shares than the actual strategy -- at least in recent weeks. If you look at the last decade, you get a different picture. But here I'm writing about the recent weakness in the stock.

For one thing -- the company is no longer spending billions to repurchase stock. In this environment it shouldn't. Media is being affected by a slowdown in spending and Time Warner will need the cash and the stock for strategic moves.

Ultimately, the value of TWX is going to boil down to two issues: What will the parent do with its stake in Time Warner Cable, Inc. (NYSE: TWC)? It looks like Bewkes is going to unlock more of the underlying value in cable. What is going to happen to AOL? So far, it looks like the content side and advertising side are both going to stay with the parent and the dial-up and access side of the business will be sold off.

I studied a longer-term chart and this last drop to under $15 has progressed to where shares are at four-year lows. Back in 2002 to 2003, shares traded under $11.

Today's economy is still weakening and the current corporate desire to unload billions of dollars in assets is far different than we were seeing in early 2007 and 2006. Time Warner shareholders saw past gains from cost cuts and new efficiencies. But the rest will have to come from solid business decisions and strong leadership.