"It's time to go value investing," says contrarian Eric Roseman, adding, "It's time to sink your teeth into America's oldest confectionary company" -- The Hershey Corporation (NYSE: HSY).
The editor of the industry-leading Commodity Trend Alert explains, "We love chocolate and want to own a great brand name that is likely to be acquired or partially acquired by a competitor at this low price." Here is his review.
"There's nothing more satisfying than a candy bar -- well, almost. I get even more excited about finding a great company or, in this case, a chocolate franchise selling at a distressed price, paying a nice dividend and home to shareholder activists seeking to boost their return on equity.
"We have regularly sought to identify distressed or contrarian blue chip stocks since 2001. The bottom line has to be deep-value and a strong catalyst for change as corporate earnings perform a 360-degree turn.
"Over the last two years, Hershey's common stock has been a real dog. HSY has shed almost half of its value since 2006, as investors grow frustrated with its board, ownership structure, faltering sales and a rudderless earnings strategy.
"Competition has also been fierce with most of its sales in mature markets, namely the United States, Canada and Mexico. Mars is running circles around Hershey, stripping the latter of market share in the U.S. mainly because of a far more aggressive advertising budget.
"If the above isn't bearish enough, consider virtually every analyst on Wall Street hates this company. But when news gets bad, and a stock gets hammered like Hershey, I start to get interested.
"What I like most about Hershey is its ability to generate strong after-tax cash flow. And free-cash is a must in a bear market or a challenging post-bull market environment for stocks.
"Could Hershey be a target? I've got to think that after a 50% share price plunge and one of the strongest brands in America, guys like Warren Buffett and other investment gurus are starting to look hard at Hershey.
"Over the last few weeks, I've also noticed some private equity and hedge fund boys nibbling at Hershey. That's bullish. And aside from hedge funds, bigger hunters like Wrigley or Nestlé's might also take a stab at Hershey.
"Another positive development is getting rid of Hershey's staid CEO last December and appointing David West, who hopefully will make some progress with Hershey's influential controlling shareholder, the Milton Hershey Trust.
"Meanwhile, cocoa and dairy prices, both in a bull market, are not helping confectionary companies. The good news is that unlike most other industries where pricing power is weak, even amid commodity inflation, Hershey is successfully raising prices on all of its core brands. I also think the bull market in cocoa is about to stall ahead of fresh supplies.
"I like great brand name companies that trade at low prices. I'm drawn to problems. That's when investors pay a large discount to buy quality assets. Hershey, which now trades 41% off its 52-week high and has tanked 31% over the last 12 months, fits that bill."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.









