AOL (TWX) search traffic lags behind competitors

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) stock is declining after AOL did not perform well in a report detailing market share in the global web search market. According to comScore data, AOL, a division of TWX, pulled in a 4.9% market share in February, far behind Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). However, data across the industry has led many analysts to believe that the market for web search is maturing, and that there is little growth to be found in the industry. This could be a bad sign for TWX, whose once-dominant AOL division is far behind industry leader GOOG with little hope at catching up. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TWX.

After hitting a one-year high of $21.97 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $13.65 on Monday. This morning, TWX opened at $13.98. So far today the stock has hit a low of $13.94 and a high of $14.35. As of 11:30, TWX is trading at $14.33, down 8 cents (-0.5%). The chart for TWX looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $17 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 11.1% return in four months as long as TWX is below $17 at July expiration. Time Warner would have to rise by more than 18% before we would start to lose money.

TWX hasn't been above $17 by more than a few cents since December and has shown resistance around $16.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy turns around quickly, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance TWX might find at its 50 day moving average, which is currently around $16.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TWX, but he does write for a financial blog on AOL.