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Raytheon (RTN): Ready for Recession

"The recent fits and spasms of the stock market predict tough times ahead; and ironically, that's good news for Raytheon (NYSE: RTN)," says Louis Basenese, Oxford Club Associate Investment Director.

In The Oxford Insight, he notes, "When stocks are anticipating a recession, the best offense is often defense stocks -- and there's plenty of reason to expect this defense contractor to shine, even if a recession is confirmed."

"Defense will likely remain one of the largest budget items for the United States, regardless of which political party wins the fall election. And, according to JP Morgan Securities, the defense outlays of the United States actually increase, by an average of 6.5% during recession years since 1945.

"So in the end, recession or not, as the world's fifth largest defense contractor, Raytheon's sure to enjoy steady demand.

"I'm sure you've recently read, all about the large spy satellite that became disabled and was poised to re-enter earth's atmosphere with a dangerous load of toxic fuel. What few know is that Raytheon's Standard Missile-3 was specially modified to intercept the target 153 miles over the Pacific Ocean.

"At the same time, the Sea-Based X-Band Radar, designed and built by Raytheon, was used to track the satellite prior to the missile engagement and perform the hit assessment afterward. The mission was a smashing success.

"While this recent example is interesting, it's important to keep in mind that it only scratches the surface of Raytheon's product lineup. What's most compelling about this defense company is its program agnostic business model.

"Instead of depending on individual programs or platforms, Raytheon competes to integrate its technology into as many types of military equipment as possible. The result is a highly diversified, economically insensitive portfolio of thousands of small projects - each accounting for no more than 4% of revenues. Therefore, one cutback or program cancellation will not devastate the bottom line - one, I might add, that continues to improve.

"In 2007, Raytheon outperformed all expectations. Sales increased 8% to $21.3 billion. Its backlog grew to a record $36.6 billion. And most importantly, earnings per share from continuing operations increased 26%.

Even better, Raytheon unloaded its last remaining non-core operations. What we're left with now is a company responsible for some of the best technology for assisting in national and homeland security.

"No doubt, this technological leadership will help keep the registers ringing and share prices rising. Especially since management always puts earnings to good use - lowering debt, buying back shares and increasing the dividend. In sum, we can expect good things to come for Raytheon, recession or not. So keep buying."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: July 26, 2008: 08:47 PM

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