With gold prices plummeting 11% since Monday, the question is whether we can say that the run up in the precious metals sector is over? Investors need to remember that nothing goes up in a straight line forever. No matter what analysts say, their is no new paradigm or anything like that, and with gold enjoying a nice seven-to-eight year run, it could very well be over.
From Internet stocks to real estate to China we always hear new reasons, that even though these sectors already produced returns in the hundreds of percent, it's still worth it to pull the trigger and invest.
I know about the argument that you need to hold gold as a hedge against inflation, but let's get real. That reason has been thrown around for the last few months. Previously, investing in gold was a supply and demand issue.
With such strong global growth causing major demand for gold, supply wasn't able to meet that demand. As such, we were told the price needs to rise. Now everyone is saying that global growth is slowing dramatically, so we need a new reason for the price of gold to rise and that is inflation. Well you can't have it both ways.
If you ask me, the inflation issues are temporary. I expect the Fed to start aggressively raising rates as soon as there is a hint of economic recovery.
As such, investors should be very careful when investing in the gold sector. Remember, nothing goes up in a straight line forever.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 3/21/08.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-21-2008 @ 12:38PM
Michael Schneider said...
Gold is correcting as expected but is this a situation where a bubble is popping? I don't think there is evidence of that yet.
Supply issues are still a big concern for gold and, though demand may have weakened as gold spiked any stabilization in gold will allow some pent up demand to come forward. A deep recession could put gold in the doldrums but gold has been moving on a number of concerns including the increased supply of money. Declining interest rates are good for gold as they both increase inflation concerns and lower carrying costs-- and declines are on the horizon. The housing market is far from reviving here, foreclosures are mounting and some banks and builders are in trouble and some hedge funds are in trouble. Perhaps housing will stabilize but that may be the most we can hope for near term. The Fed this week has buttressed the dollar and we have seen oil and other commodities pull back but the jury is out on a number of issues here-- oil inventories were in fact bullish this week and oil seemed to find a floor at $100 at least for now. Agriculture pulled back but if there is bad weather the situation could turn again.
I don't think inflation is the major problem now-- housing prices are declining and should decline further, wage pressures are limited. People are worrying about the economy though and unlike speculators who have been jumping into commodities, there are many signs that the small players who usually come in at the end of a bull market are in fact doing the opposite. They are selling their bling, dental gold and long-held coins because gold has reached the magic $1000 level. Gold could indeed correct even more sharply and it could stay down for decades if we pull out of the slowdown and see rising interest rates or if we sink so deep that oil and the economy go down the tubes. I think it is more likely that this is a correction in a bull market for the precious metal. There are also political factors like the situation with Iran that are bullish for gold but, that said, it is a time for some caution. Commodity superbull Jim Rogers recently (see Channeling Jim Rogers at http://www.Barrelomoney.com) may have said it best when he noted that he bought his new daughter one gold coin-- not ten-- because the price has moved up so fast. He sees $2,000 gold and,possibly $3,500 gold down the road.
3-21-2008 @ 1:03PM
cindy said...
I don't see any bubble popping? Our dollar is still very weak and will take sometime before it gets stronger. Demand for oil is down very little with summer around the corner you know it is going up. What I see here are the speculators pushing down commodities with large sells orders so they can buy them low and resell when they climb back up. Oil will NEVER go down past 90 per barrel ever again and if it does it is because of the reason I listed.
4-18-2008 @ 10:26AM
Sirob said...
I am just an engineer, sorry just a technician, and my opinion has no bearing in highly technical and computerized field as economics:
The total of the US borrowings without tangible collaterals ... demands that that privately held Rotschilde-type institution called Federal (?) Reserve (?) must print paper money to drop the dollar value. This alone will cause the price of gold in dollars to rise. Dollar is the global money (with US having the monopoly to print it). Printing dollars in interests of US only will bring the collapse in the economies of the whole world, including US. Rubicon had been crossed. Gold will go up far greater than in the proportion of the paper dollars printed by the private owners of the Federal (?) Reserve (?).
Story of Rotschilde: European Kings needed money to wage wars against their cousins, other Kings. Rotschilde, with blessings of the Kings, founded banks in all principalities to print and lend money to kings. Those were money from the thin air. Kings had given Rotschilde promissory notes. Those notes were real money to be taken from the subjects in the future. Rotschilde could use the funds for real investments. The kings than collected taxes, caused the money to devalue... Even 50% devaluation would leave Rotschilde with 50% real wealth of the originally printed money.
In Federal Reserves, Federal is as in Federal Express and there is no any reserve but the right given by the State Government to print money at will.