How sad that Wall Street proves once again to be full of hot air, and the Federal Reserve too. Last week I wrote that Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) was being sold way too cheap and I was not alone in my thinking. Now, all of a sudden, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) increases its offer for the Bear 500% -- from $2.00 to $10.00 per share.
There are many aspects to this story that rub me the wrong way! If JPM can swallow this deal at an increase of 500% without even blinking (maybe sheepishly smiling) then it shows that it drove a hard bargain with the Federal Reserve negotiators and probably was even in shock itself realizing what a steal it walked away with. And stealing is what it was. At least from a shareholder perspective.
The Federal Reserve now has egg on its collective face and the public confidence became weaker in the government's ability to come to grips with the problem of Wall Street.
Bear Stearns got in trouble last week for a lack of liquidity, not a lack of assets. BSC lost its liquidity because there was a modern day "run on the bank." The new offer from Chase basically ups the ante to approximately the value of Bear Stearns' headquarters building, which last I read was worth $1.1 billion.
This story is far from over. Consider this: The most questionable loans on the Bear balance sheet are to be guaranteed by the federal government, and if I understand the deal so far, that is for an amount of $30 billion. Those financial instruments might be the derivatives from hell, but no matter, because even if 50% were in default (unheard of), there would still be $15 billion of value. This does not even take into account other debt that is not in the scary category.
From everything that has been explained so far, it seems that JP Morgan Chase wants to swap JPM shares for BSC shares only to the degree that it will pay something for the headquarters and nothing else. Then, the Fed will guarantee potential losses (so there won't be any), and all Chase will have to do is manage the portfolio until the debt obligations are paid off to whatever degree, to then collect the billions of dollars that Bear Stearns would have recouped if it did not have a run on its bank.
If I do not have this picture drawn correctly, I hope one of my many astute readers will correct me, but I'm afraid that the Fed is giving away the farm. I guess that's something it is used to. We cannot actually blame Chase, it is its function to maximize JPM shareholders returns. But the Bear Stearns folks and the Fed's do not have the same calling. Why are they trying to maximize the returns of Chase shareholders at the expense of the Bear Stearns shareholders (including me) and the American taxpayer?
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture and planning firm. He writes Chasing Value and Serious Money columns. Disclosure: I am a shareholder in BSC.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-24-2008 @ 3:33PM
william lindblad said...
Yes they have egg on their face, but the Bear news came out on the week end. Easy to be critical and I am not sure I am completely with Ben either. However, given the current status of the economy I have to ask - what would you do given you had the reins? With that let's look at options and guess at results. Do Nothing. Monday the market goes into nose dive, how far unknown. The balance of the week the other houses report decent news and there is a recovery- maybe. Maybe you get everyone, including those that have nothing to do with the market looking at their financial house with concern. That's the entire banking system and that's one hell of a big risk. Instead the Fed chose to be pro-active quickly. J.P. was a good candidate and with taxpayer backing it was deal made in heaven. Considering that YOU and I are the lien holders, 10 a share is a bit high. Reminds me of the RTC but there was no time to come up with a pseudo government agency to handle the situation. I expect that there will be one up and running soon as they won't get caught with their pants down twice.
3-24-2008 @ 5:33PM
Connor Chaddick said...
Quick your conplaining, if JPM did not bail out Bear Sterns then what would be the value. (pennies) Greed on the part of BS to go after high risk was there decision. You enjoyed the ride until it blew up. $2.00 is a fair price especially if you own JPM because you don't know what else has not been exposed.
3-24-2008 @ 5:46PM
Sheldon L said...
CC,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I gave at least a clue as to why BSC might be worth more. Could you give us at least a clue as to why you think it is worth only $2. How did you arrive at that? Especially now that even JPM thinks it is worth at least $10...??
If you trusted JPM before why don't you now?
3-24-2008 @ 5:58PM
al coholic said...
Why couldn't the Fed have loaned the money for the run directly to Bear Sterns? It would have been cheaper, made a stronger statement to the public, and removed all the shickanery associated with having to broker a deal with another private firm.
3-25-2008 @ 9:17AM
taina2 said...
Why not let the "free market" work? That only goes if Wall Street makes money. The distruction of our manufacturing base now makes saving the economy a dream, unless they can fool everyone with more monopoly money.