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XM/Sirius cleared to merge: Don't buy Sirius

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The Justice Department has approved Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI)'s $5 million buyout of XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR), on the grounds that the deal is not likely to hurt consumers or competition.

In a press release, the Justice Department said that "The likely evolution of technology played an important role in the Division's assessment of competitive effects in the longer term because, for example, consumers are likely to have access to new alternatives, including mobile broadband Internet devices, by the time the current long-term contracts between the parties and car manufacturers expire."

And that is exactly why I wouldn't touch either of these companies. The Justice Department is essentially saying that emerging technology will make satellite radio a small enough part of the industry that consumers won't be harmed by the 2 biggest players merging. Do you really want to own a money-losing entity that will be facing increased competition over the next few years because of new alternatives for consumers?

The Justice Department's approval of the merger is a strong indicator that the merger won't be enough of a game changer to effect competition -- which means it also probably isn't a big win for the companies either.

The Department added that "It was not possible to estimate the magnitude of the efficiencies with precision due to the lack of evidentiary support provided by XM and Sirius..."

In other words, the Department found that many of the claims of synergy and efficiency the companies used to pitch the merger to Wall Street were lacking in "evidentiary support." It sounds to me like this could be just another non value-creating merger to add to the pantheon of deals that have over-promised and under-delivered.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 03:53 PM

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