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Oil falls briefly below $100 on consumer confidence, spending concerns

Oil fell below $100 for the first time in about a month Tuesday, after data indicating that consumer confidence slid to its lowest level last month in 35 years prompted some traders to take profits off the table.

Oil fell $1.51 to $99.35 per barrel Tuesday at mid-day after The Conference Board announced that consumer confidence fell to 64.5 -- its lowest level in 35 years. Oil has since recovered a bit and is at $100.30 as of 1:30 pm.

The other major energy commodities also fell in early trading Tuesday. Heating oil plunged about 7 cents to $2.88 per gallon, unleaded gasoline dipped 1 cent to $2.63 per gallon, and natural gas rose fell about 1 cent to $9.42 per million BTUs. All have made a slight recovery in trading this afternoon.

Some profit-taking

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz said the record-low consumer confidence data telegraphs to energy traders that consumer spending will continue to slow in the months ahead, which suggests that oil demand will also slow. "That slowing of oil demand growth should moderate oil prices later this year," Dietz said. "Short-term, it prompted some traders to lock-in some profits that they had earned earlier this year." Dietz added that he closed out several, winning monthly oil-long contracts on Monday and Tuesday, but remains long with other monthly contracts, in oil and unleaded gasoline.

Prior to its current pull-back, oil had risen a astounding $23 in about seven weeks from early-February 2008 to mid-March 2008, from the $87-range to above $110 per barrel, an all-time high.

Still, despite the recent pullback Dietz said consumers, particularly users of large amounts of gasoline, should not run out and shout for joy just yet. Dietz said it appears declining year-over-year U.S. demand for gasoline will not be able to offset bullish seasonal factors and a barely-adequate U.S. refinery capacity. He sees retail unleaded gasoline prices -- currently averaging about $3.25 per gallon nationally -- increasing another 20-25 cents as the nation enters the peak driving season this summer.

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Last updated: May 16, 2008: 01:43 PM

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