We recently acquired shares of Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) at $36.00 ahead of its earnings report. We have been watching it for about 16 months and I thought there was increasing value as the stock started dropping from its 52 week high of $57.34. I had previously brought it to readers' attention in Serious Money: Pondering Home Depot, Tiffany & Wells Fargo. After we put TIF on our watch list, that seemed like all we could do, just watch as it continued to move up farther away from our perceived value. So we just decided to let this train leave the station without us. Then the train came back and rewarded our patience.
Tiffany is a brand name of historic magnitude, pays a dividend, has a business that is easy to understand and is expanding internationally. Yesterday, the stock closed at $43.56 as the company raised its outlook for the year. The stock price is now just above where it was when we started watching it, but long term there might still be value here. I should note that we will not add to our position at this level, but if it drops again we will.
The following ten year chart indicates a highly erratic stock that can swing wildly, as much as $20 in any given year. From 1999 to 2004, there was no appreciation. Interestingly, I would have thought these 20 point swings might be appealing to one of my colleagues who uses charts and is a trader, but it was not. He hated this chart and sees no upward momentum. I on the other hand see plenty to like.
When I look at the stock chart, I look for something different than my colleague. But first I should repeat that I am not a student of technical analysis, except at the most basic level. Since I am still an old fashioned buy and hold guy, I like the fact that the long term direction of the company is up; 400% up in the last ten years. The other thing is that I like our entry point which is at the bottom if you connect all the valleys. That is about as much charting as I do.
The firm is mostly known for fine jewelry, but the company also puts its name on timepieces, silverware, china, stationery, and other luxury items. It sells exclusively through nearly 170 Tiffany & Co. stores and boutiques worldwide, its web site, business-to-business accounts, and catalogs. The international market should have plenty of room for growth given the millions of new capitalists in China, Russia, India and throughout the middle east.
After the most recent stock run up, all of Tiffany's key metrics are relatively average. It has a P/E around 17 and a P/S around 2. TIF has a net profit margin of 10%. For us this acquisition is very, very basic. We simply wanted to buy a good company on sale and we think we did that. I hope 'my pal Warren' approves.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: We own shares in TIF.










