Global Sources (GSOL): Shares cycling in bullish 'pennant'


Global Sources (NASDAQ: GSOL) is a business-to-business media company, providing information and integrated marketing services to import/export traders. The firm creates and hosts Web sites that feature the products of some 150,000 suppliers in over 200 countries, with a strong focus on the Chinese market. It also publishes trade magazines and hosts trade shows. The company's services are directed toward businesses in the computer, electronics, security, telecom, textile, fashion, machinery and home products sectors.

Global Sources pleased investors earlier in the month, when it reported Q4 EPS of 19 cents and revenues of $60.8 million. Analysts had been looking for 16 cents and $61 million. Management guided Q1 EPS to 11-12 cents (11 cent consensus) and Q1 revenues to $39.5-$40.0 million ($39.67M consensus). Citigroup subsequently upgraded the shares to "buy."

The stock popped on the news and then began consolidating the gain in a bullish "pennant" pattern. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Altogether, brokers now recommend the issue with two "strong buys" and a "buy." Analysts expect a 32% growth rate, through the next year. The GSOL Price to Book ratio (4.14), Price to Free Cash Flow ratio (14.74) and Return on Investment (17.02%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 17% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $10.50 and $35.35. A stop-loss of $12.75 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold a position in the stock discussed above.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 11:17 AM

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