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Savings Experiment: Snow RemovalColgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL)'s restructuring is working, and its 2008/2009 results will continue to show it. In late 2004 CL initiated a 4-year cost reduction program including a 10% workforce reduction, new product roll-outs, an emphasis on larger-growth markets, and the more-savvy deployment of marketing resources.
The results to-date? The CL train is moving forward, with analysts generally seeing near-double-digit annual revenue growth through at least 2009, and probably longer. An eye-opening stat -- Colgate is an enhanced, global consumer products defensive play: 65% of CL's revenue stems from personal, oral, and home care sales outside North America.
Hence, even if U.S. consumer goods sales slump badly (which is not likely) CL can look to its international consumer product operations to support results. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 EPS consensus estimates for CL are $3.81/$4.27.
The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on intensifying competition in the international oral hygiene/care market, CL's new product introductions, and on competition from generic-brand suppliers.
The First Call mean rating for CL is: Buy [18 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $83.00 [high: $91, low: $74.00].
Stock Analysis: Colgate is a low-risk stock. Investors seeking a consumer products defensive play should consider purchasing CL shares. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from CL's shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $59. Very conservative investors may consider waiting until CL pulls-back closer to $72, but keep in mind that CL's shares may not retreat to that level.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
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