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How the frozen $330 billion Auction Rate Securities (ARS) market will burn Merrill

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Here's a new reason that the brokerage firms are in trouble. The customers who hold Auction Rate Securities (ARS) accounts will take their entire portfolios away from the firms who are currently denying them access to their money. I am not sure which brokers will benefit from this, but I can suggest one that will suffer -- Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER).

Since I started writing about the $330 billion ARS market last month, my initial post has accumulated 764 comments. ARSs are bonds that were issued by municipalities, such as the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. The interest rate on the bonds would reset in weekly auctions. But in the last several months, those auctions began to fail so the rates that issuers paid spiked from as little as 3% to 20%. Unfortunately, individual investors were persuaded to put their spare cash in these ARS accounts by brokers who touted their relatively high yields and low risk.

But now those ARS accounts are frozen due to the failure of the auctions. One person about whom I posted earlier this week, has $1.4 million frozen in ARSs and needs to come up with another way to pay the $350,000 he owes in taxes from the sale of the business that generated those proceeds. Today, I read a comment from a person who claims that her account at Merrill is frozen and she plans to take her entire seven figure portfolio away from Merrill as soon as she gets her ARS account unfrozen. Here are some excerpts:

I spoke to a Managing Director level contact that I have at [Merrill] here in NYC. She informed me that 6 months seems to be the recognized time frame for resolution -- I assume that this is the new company line....I will feel much more comfortable when a clear plan of action is communicated -- the radio silence right now is deafening. That's what's bothering me. Also, in this environment that we're in, anything is possible -- that's what's scary -- imagine these assets being marked down below PAR - !"

"Once this is cleared up, I plan on moving my 7 figure + account away from ML - what good is having them manage my $ when they can't properly disclose the risks associated with a supposedly safe and cash-equivalent vehicle to park my $ in the short term. [my italics and bolding] What's even more discouraging is that they have not been proactive at all in advising and updating me on what's happening."

Merrill likes to brag about the trillion dollars it has in its wealth management division. Merrill is certainly not the only one involved with this problem, but how many other stories like this one will cause those assets to stampede out Merrill's door?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Merrill Lynch.


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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 03:11 AM

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