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Burlington Northern (BNI) is the transportation sweet spot

For nearly 30 years, the rails, long neglected in the United States, were considered passé. Then the globalization era dawned, with its exports and demand for commodities. Add a price of oil that's basically risen for 10 years and the results is: the rails are back. And with the above in mind, Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) is worth an evaluation.

With 32,000 miles of track in the western U.S. and two Canadian provinces, Burlington Northern accounts for about 45% of the west's traffic and about 23% of U.S. rail traffic.

Analysts see 2008 revenue growth of about 6-8%, down from double-digit growth a year earlier, but still healthy. Margins should remain solid, with modest pricing power. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for BNI are $5.92/$6.81.

Even better: like the three other major U.S. railroads, BNI is in a relative sweet spot until the United States determines its energy policy for the 21st century. Or should one say 'if the United States determines its energy policy for the 21st century.' Investors will carefully note that the value Wall Street attaches to rail stocks pretty much mirrors the price of oil's ascent, due to the higher truck transportation costs implied by a higher price of oil.

The risks? Slower global growth would hurt BNI's results. Analysts are also keeping an eye on BNI's pricing power.

The First Call mean rating for BNI is Buy (16 firms), and the mean 2008 target is $96.00 (high: $105, low: $87).

Stock Analysis: Burlington Northern is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from BNI's shares. Note: More-cautious investors may wait for BNI to pull-back to $91, but keep in mind BNI's shares may not retreat to that level. Consider a stop loss of $68 if you were to purchase shares in this company.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

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Last updated: May 17, 2008: 04:35 AM

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