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Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) shrugs off $40 million refund

CCL logoCarnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) shares are trading higher today even though CCL announced yesterday after market close that it will refund $40 million to customers who were assessed a fuel surcharge after booking trips on the cruise line. Despite this massive rebate, CCL shares are rising today, showing that what really matters for companies like this are lower oil prices, which mean lower fuel costs. Front-month crude today has reached as low as $99.55 and are currently just above $100. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CCL.

After hitting a one-year high of $52.10 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $36.10 last month. CCL opened this morning at $41.06. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.06 and a high of $43.00. As of 11:50, CCL is trading at $42.70, up $2.22 (5.5%). The chart for CCL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $35 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just 7 weeks as long as CCL is above $35 at May expiration. Carnival would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

CCL hasn't been below $36 at all in the past year and has shown support around $37 recently. This trade could be risky if crude oil prices (and fuel costs) continue to rise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $36, where it bottomed out twice in the past few months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in CCL.

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 08:38 AM

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