Generally, one would not list a tech stock as a defensive play. Cisco Systems may be an exception.
Two fundamentals warrant the advocacy of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) as a defensive play: 1) the company is the world's largest supplier of computer internet-network systems, and 2) emerging market growth. So long as the internet remains intrinsic to business processes in emerging and developed markets and so long as emerging markets continue to grow, Cisco will benefit in the years head. Analysts project a roughly 12-15% annual revenue growth rate for CSCO for 2008-2009. Another positive: look for CSCO's advanced technologies unit to continue to contribute impressively to the company's revenue, on video system business.
Further, skip (for now) the debate regarding the possible 'broadband shortage' and focus instead on the counterargument. Assume deteriorating conditions in the U.S., perpetually high energy prices slowing global growth, and increased protectionist sentiment. The impact on Cisco? Most likely, CSCO keeps growing, albeit at a slower rate, but it will grow, nonetheless. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for CSCO are $1.52/$1.69.
Further, CSCO's P/E of 19 is elevated, but it's not unreasonable, given CSCO' s likely adequate revenue growth.
The risks? A decline in corporate enterprise spending would hurt CSCO's results.
The First Call mean rating for CSCO is Buy (33 firms), and the mean 2008 target is $28 (high: $33, low: $23).
Stock Analysis: Cisco is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from CSCO's shares. Consider a stop loss of $17 if you were to purchase shares in this company. Note: If more than 10% of your portfolio already is tech stocks, don't buy Cisco.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
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