I wonder how many Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) shareholders caught the following Bloomberg article last week. According to an analyst and an options guy at Citigroup, Disney shares most likely won't reach $37.50 by the middle of October 2008. So, they think that selling call options at this price that would expire in October might be a profitable move. They give the slowing economy, in conjunction with the fact that the $37.50 price was last seen by Disney stock back in late 2000, as reasons to justify this trading strategy.

Well, I, a Disney shareholder, will weigh in on this topic. Options are tricky things -- they oftentimes cast the trader of such derivative instruments in the role of the clairvoyant. Make no mistake, you are trying to tell the future, and it's pretty darn hard to tell the future, my friend. Here are a few points going against this trade. One: Bob Iger's regime has been pretty good in terms of beating earnings expectations as of late. Two: by the time October rolls around, anything can happen in the economy, consumers could suddenly feel a surge of confidence because of any number of unknown catalysts to come, and the market might discount Disney's future performance accordingly. Three: the 52-week high on the stock is $36.79, and that isn't too far from $37.50.

That being said, I can see where these guys are coming from. The gut does tell them, correctly I might add, that the odds are that Disney's stock price won't be above $37 by this October. I've owned Disney for almost a decade now, and I know that the stock is always fighting one resistance level or other. But, I'd be pretty careful about acting upon this interesting theory. By the way, I have no problem with options, they can be useful instruments of insurance as well as effective methods of investment. Nevertheless, this bet seems risky to me. Disney has a long road ahead of itself this year to break through the 52-week high; it needs to be a strong competitor against Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and CBS (NYSE: CBS), which means that its content must do better than the content owned by these big guys. I agree with the Citi analysts to some degree, but I don't think I'll go along with them on this particular idea. Still, for Disney owners, this call is a bit depressing.

Disclosure: I own shares in Disney; positions can change at any time.