Market stumbles on a black swan

Posted Apr 3rd 2008 3:41PM by Zac Bissonnette
Filed under: Merrill Lynch (MER), Books, Bear Stearns Cos (BSC)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is looking pretty good. In his 2007 book The Black Swan, the futures trader turned philosophy guru warned about the impact that large, fat-tail events can have on financial markets. He has been saying for years that traditional risk management models are inadequate and The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC), Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER), and just about everyone else are probably agreeing with him right about now.

The Black Swan has outsold Alan Greenspan's new book -- a testament to the intelligence of readers. With the meltdown in housing, Taleb is finally getting the media attention her deserves.

The latest issue of Bloomberg Markets has a fantastic profile of him, as does Fortune.

The interview with Fortune has some interesting quotes on the current crisis. Referring to the subprime crisis, he told the magazine that "I've been telling anyone willing to listen that banks have a tendency to sit on time bombs while convincing themselves that they are conservative and nonvolatile."

Taleb also believes that the rise of banking giants created by mega-mergers is contributing to the carnage: "Today the entire banking system is dominated by a few monster banks, and almost all have the same exposures. So the system became less and less volatile while becoming riskier and riskier."

Some may be shaking their heads -- aren't volatility and risk supposed to go hand in hand? That's just one of the risk management myths that Taleb has been slamming for years.

Tags: Black Swan, BlackSwan, Taleb