When last I looked at Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) in 2007 the stock was trading a lot higher. I argued at the time that there was value in this quality company and investors should take a look. Others liked the company, but wisely said there was plenty of time to wait because profits would be coming down with the slowing economy.
Some commented that HOG was over-priced in the high $40's even though it had come down from it's 52-week high of $66 per share. It was trading at a sizable 26% discount when I posted Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson (HOG) profits down 15% -- beats Wall St. last November at $48.95. Having closed yesterday at $39.39 it is now down over 40%.
Many of the brightest minds in my circles feel the economy will not pick up significantly for another 18 months and that we will have fits and starts in between then and now. There does not appear to be any urgency to acquiring stocks that will be dependent on economic recovery to turn for the better. However, HOG might be one to dollar cost average into over time if you believe it will not turn into General Motors or fade like Levi Strauss.
It is currently paying over a 3% dividend yield and unlike other companies Harley has been raising it recently, not lowering it. The P/E ratio of 10 which is projected to hold going forward, the ROE over 36 which is substantial and the ROIC over 20 are more than respectable.
I have not heard even a whisper doubting its superior quality of management and they seem to have put any labor issues to rest as well. I thought there was value in HOG a few months ago so I have to believe the story is even better today with international markets growing and all types of motorcycles being considered for those trying to stretch their gas dollars.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of HOG.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-04-2008 @ 3:37PM
Frank said...
Mr. Lieber:
You wrote, "...all types of motor cycles being considered for those trying to stretch their gas dollars."
Be aware that no one buys a Harley-Davidson to save gas! When it comes to motorcycles (not the spelling of that word), Harleys are gas hogs.
4-04-2008 @ 3:43PM
Sheldon L said...
I agree with you Frank, that is why I referred to all bikes not just Harleys. However, people rationalize such purchases to themselves (and spouses) in many ways and HOG's get better mileage than cars do. Nobody 'needs' a Harley.
Also, thanks for catching the typo, now corrected...BTW check the spelling of my name ;-)
4-06-2008 @ 5:16PM
Gene said...
I harley think , no pun intended, that the average JOE consumer will be riding down to the local HOG dealer to plug down $15 to $30k on a new ride with the economy headed south, this is a luxury, lets face reality.
I suspect this stock will tank down to the mid 20's by end of year.
And Hog will be doing everything they can just to survive
4-09-2008 @ 12:29AM
Hogman said...
Frank, you have no idea what you are talking about. My '03 88 cubic inch Harley with fuel injection gets 50 (fifty) miles to the gallon! So much for the gas hog comment! Perhaps more folks should buy one. Help our own economy in two ways!
4-09-2008 @ 10:21AM
Doug said...
HOG is an icon that is not going to be upstaged anytime soon. Therefore I agree that one should dollar cost average as long as the stock is below fifty because one day these prices will look cheap.