TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says not all mortgage bonds are bad, and the ones with solid backing could be worth finding and buying. Home price declines abound. Yet the mortgage bonds that are entwined with those homes are going up. So what's going on?
I think that what is happening is that the bonds themselves are not "as bad" as people think. There are several kinds of bonds out there that have to do with mortgages. Some of them are combinations of Home Equity Loans, and when you read that home prices have declined, many of these bonds could be worthless. But we are now becoming able to figure out that there are some homes that are not being walked away from, and if that paper can be found it might be a buy.
It's the latter that is trading and is taking the pressure off the Merrills (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) and the Citigroups (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), and that's why you can hear Merrill say it doesn't need more capital. The inventory is rising in value or being sold at prices that are higher than we thought or that were marked.
So, when you see house prices decline, you have to recognize that we are not out of the woods when it comes to the domestic economy. But when it comes to the financials, you could have too much of a discount for some bonds, which makes it so you can isolate the bad and trade the good.
That's a huge change.
And it is a positive one that removes systemic risk even as it does not make the consumer stronger or better.
Random musings: Lots of people are asking me if I am changing my view of Bernanke in light of the rally in the financials post-Bear (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take). Why should I? The work since Bear is the work of Treasury (mostly Bob Steel) taking over from Bernanke and working in concert with the Fed. Had the Fed opened the discount window when I said it should, all of this could have been avoided. All of it. That's some legacy.
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-04-2008 @ 11:08AM
Danny W said...
Please,please,please AOL stop with the articles from this crook and liar. This crook should be under investigation by the SEC. You are doing a vast disservice to anyone that visits the finance pages of this website. Once again he is a liar and a crook and needs to be investigated by the SEC.