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Juniper Networks (JNPR) gets cautious commentary

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JNPR logoJuniper Networks, Inc. (NASADQ: JNPR) stock is relatively flat today after an analyst at Friedman, Billings, and Ramsey initiated coverage on the stock with a "Market Perform" rating, saying he expects modest growth for the company over the next few years. The analyst said profit forecasts by other analysts are realistic, but there is reason to be cautious on JNPR, since other vendors have noted increasing caution by customers. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on JNPR.

After hitting a one-year low of $19.86 last April, the stock hit a one-year high of $37.95 in October. This morning, JNPR opened at $24.30. So far today the stock has hit a low of $23.69 and a high of $24.39. As of 12:40, JNPR is trading at $24.39, up 1 cent (0.04%). The chart for JNPR looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $31 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.1% return in 3 and a half months as long as JNPR is below $31 at July expiration. Juniper would have to rise by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

JNPR hasn't been above $31 since January and has shown resistance around $26 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 4/24) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance JNPR might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $31.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in JNPR.
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Last updated: July 05, 2009: 03:15 PM

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