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Chasing Value: March review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- not so refined

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After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.

March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave some ground in March as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index while the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was marginally up with stocks like Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) improving notably.

Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.

My original rational for my eight picks remains intact as far as I'm concerned, and although they are down I still like all of them for the year. See Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 for the original story. In January, I added Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) and Huaneng Power (NYSE:HNP) to my holdings. I made no additions in February or March among these stocks. The only purchase we made in March was noted in Chasing Value: Tiffany is looking more polished and that has performed very well.

This month the average return for my eight picks was a loss of -15.96%, almost doubling the -8.06% through February. This under-performed the average return of the indices: -11.19%. This years stalking horse, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), sagged a little during the month, still besting both my average and overall indices average. So once more, I must take my hat off to 'my pal Warren'.

Now, including dividends for my picks, which average 3.91% yield divided by four for the three months, allows for an additional .978%, reducing the loss to -14.98%. Using 1.8% for the average dividend of the indices divided by 4 adds 0.45%, reduces the loss to -10.74%. Nothing can make my picks look good this month. BRK.B does not pay a dividend.

Newcastle Investments reduced its dividend by two-thirds in March (going forward) to increase liquidity and possibly buy back shares. In the coming months I will account for this and reduce the accrued dividends proportionally.

I hope 2008 does not end up being about who loses the least, instead of who makes the most. The following are my eight picks with the starting share price as of December 28, 2007:

The Indices:

This year's "stalking horse" Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B). I am tracking the 'B' shares, not the more expensive 'A' shares. The B shares are down from $4,685 to $4,472.90 for a loss of -4.53%. This is the first month Berkshire has had much of a loss, but it still bested most everything else....so 'my pal Warren' outperformed all of the indices and my average as well. As was the case last month, individually RTN (defense sector), AAUK and RS (metals) made a better showing.

The Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, speaking before Congress used the recession word quite freely, and again shared his willingness to lower interest rates again.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of AAUK, BRK.B, HNP, NCT, and VLO. (and TIF)

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-223.328,280.74
NASDAQ-49.201,796.52
S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 06, 2009: 01:20 AM

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