After yesterday's big jump in oil prices, it looked as though we might see the precious crude break through the psychological $110 barrier today, but that has not been the case. Oil hit a high of $109.64 earlier in the session, but is currently trading in the red at $108.38, down $0.71.
Yesterday's move was more a result of traders betting on future interest rate cuts that it was fundamentals justifying oil trading around the $110 mark. As recession fears continue to linger, you can be sure that interest in commodities will remain high, and oil prices will keep trading at near record levels for at least a little while longer.
Also, as I noted last week, we are quickly approaching the summer driving months. As we see gasoline prices at record levels, we have to expect to see prices creeping even a bit higher as demand starts to build this summer. In fact, last week we were given data that gasoline inventories were falling and demand was increasing. This was the first time since back in January that gasoline demand rose.
In other news, the Energy Department has lifted its prediction for American oil prices in 2008 all the way up to $101 a barrel. This is a 7.5% jump from its prior estimate of $94. Looking ahead to 2009, it believes prices will cool off, and fall back down to an average of around $92.50 a barrel, which would be a welcome relief from the current prices, but still marks a 7.5% increase from its previous 2009 estimate.
But don't put too much weight on the Energy Department's predictions. The oil market is just too unpredictable to really put too much faith in such long term predictions. The Department itself hedged its estimates by stating that there is inherently a "significant uncertainty" in oil price predictions.
But what about what is really on our minds: gasoline prices. Gasoline prices have hit record high averages of above $3.30 a gallon and really show no signs of coming back down. According the Energy Department, you can expect to see the national average moving higher between now and June, before peaking around $3.60. That's almost another 10% jump in prices in case you were wondering what the math was on that one. Once again, don't let yourself be fooled -- the $3.60 prediction could be well off the mark, as many analysts are already estimating that $4 gasoline is coming our way.
For now, it really is anyone's guess just how much we are going to be forking over this summer when we fill up our cars. I, for one, would not be at all surprised to be sitting here two months from now writing about $4 gasoline.
What are your predictions? Where do you see gasoline prices heading this summer? Will you let the high price of gas effect your summer travel plans, or will you just deal with the extra cost and take your trips regardless?











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-08-2008 @ 4:00PM
Drew said...
Keep this in mind: with the nuclear situtation in the mid-east heating up, terrorists previously caught evaluating our oil refineries as targets to shut down "the Great Satan", and the silly greed of those who would not be affected by high prices (namely out of touch CEO's who probably wouldn't care if a million Americans froze to death due to lack of heat), you have a very unstable situation and $4 gas may be the least of the problems as food rises up in tandem with them.
4-08-2008 @ 4:14PM
Michael Schneider said...
The low refinery utilization rate tells us gasoline prices are likely headed higher near term no matter what the price of oil does.
People still have a lot of wasteful habits in regard to driving. Fighting to get the parking space closest to the doors at shopping malls and restaurants is still a common cultural curiosity- it wastes some gas but just look in any shopping center and you see almost everybody does it.