Online retail sales to move up 17%, maybe

The Wall Street Journal reports that "Despite economic uncertainty, online retail sales are forecast to rise 17% this year to a record $204 billion, according to a new study" from market-research firm Forrester Research. If the numbers are true, it is probably good for companies like Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) that pick up a large portion of their revenue from retailers.

But the numbers may be way too high. Online retailers had hoped for and projected a breakout holiday season last year. Numbers came in below most expectations.

Google is already fighting the perception that the volume of people who click on its text ads is falling sharply. The internet retail market, which only became a real opportunity for advertisers in the last decade, has never been through a big recession. In other words, the 17% growth is a guess, and one that is probably too high.

With same-store sales in the brick-and-mortar world showing negative numbers, it is hard to believe that online sales will not suffer.

Up 17%? No way. Ten percent if they are lucky.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.