Oil above $100 for the year

The good news keeps on coming. The government now expects oil prices to stay above $101 a barrel for the balance of the year. That means that many Americans will be deciding between driving and the costs of basic daily necessities.

U.S. Energy Information Administration "had predicted $87-a-barrel oil in January," according to The Wall Street Journal. So, the agency has revised its target up 16% in a little over three months.

The biggest question from the report is whether Americans will drive less and keep oil from rising further? The answer may be that it does not matter.

So much of the demand for the world's oil comes from emerging markets such as China that a slight drop in US consumption is almost certain to be taken up somewhere else. Refinery capacity is not growing, so the supply of gas and diesel is not likely to improve. And, new, large oil fields are not coming on line at the rate that they were twenty years ago.

The new estimate on the price of oil may actually be conservative. Watch for it to be revised up again in June. The global demand for crude is that great.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.