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Barry Bonds' last home run ball sells for $376,612 -- a good value?

The last ball knocked out of the park by all-time home run king Barry Bonds has sold at auction for $376,612.

That's either a bargain or a rip-off, depending on what happens next. Barry Bonds is an unsigned free agent as of now, but he and his agent have insisted that the slugger intends to continue his Hall of Fame career that has been tarnished by allegations of performance enhancing drug use.

The president of the auction house told the Associated Press that "If Barry Bonds never plays again, whoever bought this ball has a valuable piece that's worth seven figures." Of course, if Bonds does make a comeback, the ball is worth a fraction of what it sold for.

The sale of the Barry Bonds ball is actually a pretty good metaphor for the stock market. Given the tremendous uncertainty surrounding Barry Bonds' career, the sale price represents the market's best estimate of what will happen. That is, in a nutshell, the premise behind discounted cash flow.

Given the large discrepancy between the ball's sale price and its probable value if it is indeed his last home run, it seems that many baseball enthusiasts are betting we haven't seen the last of one of the most hated men in the history of the game.

Alternatively, it could be that the increasing scandal surrounding Bonds' accomplishments have driven down the ball's value -- kind of like how investors will pay a lower P/E ratio for a company's stock if they believe it's inflating its numbers.

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Last updated: November 20, 2008: 01:30 PM

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