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Ford Focus success shows change is happening at Ford, but it's still too little and too late

Sometimes it takes a sledgehammer to the head to get a company to change direction.

Fuel costs are soaring, profits are dwindling and companies are desperate. Yet, nimble as they would like to be, U.S. auto manufacturers have been unable to provide any significant benefit to consumers in terms of meaningful fuel efficiency. Up until last year, SUV sales were still the dominant component of sales for the Big 3. It wasn't until the pain of a significant drop in SUV sales was realized and reports showed U.S. auto sales to be the lowest since 1993 that our old friend Mr. Hammer was able to wake up a sleeping (or it it dying?) U.S. auto industry.

Now Ford (NYSE: F) is trumpeting a dramatic increase in demand for its economical Ford Focus and boosting output by 30%. But I think the change is too little too late.

The truth is that U.S. vehicle sales are expected to drop by 15 million units in 2008. An increase of 30% of the Ford Focus would still mean a paltry benefit as these lower cost models also have a lower profit margin for Ford. So, as consumers buy more lower margin cars, Ford makes less money.


Also, Ford will face continued headwind once competitors such as Toyota and Honda begin to take notice of any shift in buyer preference away from their competing product offerings.

More importantly, how can Ford profit as material costs soar, recession looms and they have an unsold inventory on ridiculously large and overstocked dealerships. Tell me about a fundamental change to dealer floor plan management. Tell me that Michael Dell has been hired to revamp the assembly line and created a just-in-time manufacturing process. Tell me that unions are making concessions. Tell me that management is making concessions. Tell me that there is a car with 100 mile per gallon efficiency. Even tell me that there is a "BUY U.S. " craze that has swept our great country.

Other than that, I do not want to hear that Ford, General Motors or Chrysler are increasing production on a lower margin model. That does not inspire in any way me to buy their stock.

Let's not mention the fact that credit concerns along with rising default and delinquency rates could also destroy their financing operations.

Ford is still well behind the curve and reacting rather than providing a proactive solution to a much bigger problem. The simple fact that the company continues to produce cars without changing U.S. consumer buying habits. That will provide for the continuation of its slow and painful death. Back in May of 2007 I wrote: Adapt or Die - 5 ways to help this ailing industry:
  • Change the rules
  • Allow for the possibility of employee benefit reduction
  • MERGE, Share or Die!
  • Get efficient.
  • If this all fails, run an American Car Exec-Idol show (just in case all else fails)
If the industry does not adapt, it WILL die.

Anything positive to say? Come to think of it....NO!

Andrew Horowitz, is a money manager and author of The Disciplined Investor. He discusses similar economic issues with Robert Reich in the most recent episode of The Disciplined Investor Podcast
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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 12:56 PM

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