Sometimes it takes a sledgehammer to the head to get a company to change direction.Fuel costs are soaring, profits are dwindling and companies are desperate. Yet, nimble as they would like to be, U.S. auto manufacturers have been unable to provide any significant benefit to consumers in terms of meaningful fuel efficiency. Up until last year, SUV sales were still the dominant component of sales for the Big 3. It wasn't until the pain of a significant drop in SUV sales was realized and reports showed U.S. auto sales to be the lowest since 1993 that our old friend Mr. Hammer was able to wake up a sleeping (or it it dying?) U.S. auto industry.
Now Ford (NYSE: F) is trumpeting a dramatic increase in demand for its economical Ford Focus and boosting output by 30%. But I think the change is too little too late.
The truth is that U.S. vehicle sales are expected to drop by 15 million units in 2008. An increase of 30% of the Ford Focus would still mean a paltry benefit as these lower cost models also have a lower profit margin for Ford. So, as consumers buy more lower margin cars, Ford makes less money.
Also, Ford will face continued headwind once competitors such as Toyota and Honda begin to take notice of any shift in buyer preference away from their competing product offerings.
More importantly, how can Ford profit as material costs soar, recession looms and they have an unsold inventory on ridiculously large and overstocked dealerships. Tell me about a fundamental change to dealer floor plan management. Tell me that Michael Dell has been hired to revamp the assembly line and created a just-in-time manufacturing process. Tell me that unions are making concessions. Tell me that management is making concessions. Tell me that there is a car with 100 mile per gallon efficiency. Even tell me that there is a "BUY U.S. " craze that has swept our great country.
Other than that, I do not want to hear that Ford, General Motors or Chrysler are increasing production on a lower margin model. That does not inspire in any way me to buy their stock.
Let's not mention the fact that credit concerns along with rising default and delinquency rates could also destroy their financing operations.
Ford is still well behind the curve and reacting rather than providing a proactive solution to a much bigger problem. The simple fact that the company continues to produce cars without changing U.S. consumer buying habits. That will provide for the continuation of its slow and painful death. Back in May of 2007 I wrote: Adapt or Die - 5 ways to help this ailing industry:
- Change the rules
- Allow for the possibility of employee benefit reduction
- MERGE, Share or Die!
- Get efficient.
- If this all fails, run an American Car Exec-Idol show (just in case all else fails)
Anything positive to say? Come to think of it....NO!
Andrew Horowitz, is a money manager and author of The Disciplined Investor. He discusses similar economic issues with Robert Reich in the most recent episode of The Disciplined Investor Podcast











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-15-2008 @ 10:30AM
Galls said...
Why hasn't Ford just started using their European models? They do look and handle much better. Is it some deal set with the unions or some protectionist government policy?
4-15-2008 @ 11:57AM
mkct said...
It's really a shame that the big US automakers let themselves get to this point. When 2 of the largest automakers in the world can't even get the American people to buy their products over a foreign competitor's model, that really says something about their products and pricing strategy. I was born in the early 80's and grew up being taught that American cars were unreliable and ugly, after my parents had several bad experiences with Chevys and Buicks. Nissan was the common name in my family for at least a decade and a half. Only until recent years have US automakers started to design attractive modern cars that appeal to a mass US market, and started to raise the quality of their product. Still, i feel there is more that can be done in terms of reliability and fit & finish of domestic autos. They need to be more competative with the sleek, reliable and affordable imports that have flooded our shores for years now.
4-15-2008 @ 5:45PM
Anthony said...
I just got done test driving a few cars in this class, and ended buying the new Focus. If you haven't actually gotten inside one and driven it, you shouldn't post comments. It's way nicer than I ever thought it would be, and the fit and finish is better than the Sentra I looked at. Very Nicely equipped I paid $18k OTD. A comparably equipped Civic would have been around $22k.
As for not bringing the Euro Focus to America...They do! It's called the Mazda3. As for the design, it's definately a love it or hate it look. The car's design does stand out of a crowd, but that's exactly what Ford needs right now. They need to be different or they will end up getting lost among the competition.
Would I buy Stock in the company right now? No...but I don't think that they are as hopeless of a company as some people think.
If you are in the market for a new compact, don't rule out Ford, you would be surprised.
4-15-2008 @ 8:09PM
Floyd said...
Hi Andrew
Noticed an error in your article. You wrote
"Other than that, I do not want to hear that Ford, General Motors or Daimler Chrysler are increasing production on a lower margin model. That does not inspire in any way me to buy their stock."
Daimler Chrysler no longer exist. Please make the change to your article. It is now just Daimler (Mercedes) & Chrysler as individual competing companies. Chrysler was sold to Cerberus Capital Management in May 2007, which I'm sure you know about.
4-16-2008 @ 10:46AM
Micro1234 said...
Too little too late? I'm sure that Toyota isn't as pessimistic about Ford's future as this biased blogger is. While the Focus was ringing up 35% gains in retail sales during the quarter the "brand new" Corolla was registering 15% drops. Maybe some Toyota execs have actually test driven the Focus are asking themselves where did we go wrong. The suspension, handling, and cabin quietness on the Focus can't be matched by anything that it competes against. And on top of all that it gets better gas mileage than the smaller Fit, Yaris, and Versa. And in a year and a half the Fiesta "B" car will be here to allow Ford to be the dominant player in the entry level segment with profits due to the new labor agreement allowing them to pay $14 and hour as opposed to $28 and hour and better work rules with the unions that allow cross training which reduces the total headcount per factory necessary to build a car in the U.S. Ford will still take some big charges this year to payoff unnecessary workers but don't be surprised if they post a profitable quarter or two this year due to the hot streak they are already on across the globe. Only North America is hurting right now and it is only 9 months away from sustained profits. And the best news is that after 10 years of not producing anything that resembled a marketing plan they now have a coherent message to tell consumers and Jim Farley is the man doing it. One could say that he was "ahead of the curve" and left Toyota before it was "too late".
4-16-2008 @ 10:57AM
Andrew Horowitz said...
Micro::::
Careful with BIAS comments. One could suggest that your comments are biased. In fact, isn't any opinion biased?
No ownership here of any of above so no bias.
Andrew
4-16-2008 @ 3:21PM
Micro1234 said...
One could say that my comments are biased towards facts while your comments suggest that you posted a blog without investigating the facts. Instead you based your comments on preconceived notions established on facts from the past.
Here's a couple of examples:
You criticize Ford's inventory levels even though they are managing their inventory better than they ever have.
You imply that the UAW have not given any concessions when in fact they now allow for new hires to be paid 50% less than current workers.
I believe you in that you do not own any shares of Ford, but have you recently shorted the stock? That would make more sense considering the slant you presented in your blog.
Researching your topic goes a long way in making a blog seem unbiased. Present facts and comment on them or pehaps use the phrase "In my opinion" before every undocumented item that you present.
4-16-2008 @ 4:19PM
Andrew Horowitz said...
It is funny. Anytime I write about Ford or Apple or one of a handful of stocks. There seems to be a full moon or something.
NO, not short, Not Long, no options... I do own a Ford car though.
So, now that we got that out of the way. Maybe you can explain to me how they are managing inventory better with their current floorplan model?
Also, you do not provide anything with regard to the margin issue discussed.
I do assume you are a long term holder of the stock and for that I am sorry. Hang on to the hope my friend, maybe it will come back....maybe.
Never say Never, right?
4-16-2008 @ 6:21PM
Micro1234 said...
I can only imagine the comments you might get from the pothead crowd that supports Apple.
I agree that their margins will be strained by the consumer's shift from SUVs to sub-compacts. But the average transaction price on the Focus is up $2,000 per unit so far this year. The Fiesta will most likely be built in Brazil and even in the current weak dollar environment it is cheaper for them to build and import it here at a profit. At the same time they will be replacing the $28 an hour workers who retire or take buyouts with $14 an hour workers. To help with overall margins even more will be the MKS over at Lincoln later this year. It's the first full-size Lincoln that they will have sold in years on the retail front. The Flex will take SUV, CUV, and high-end minivan sales from competitors and in the process probably lead to the demise of the Taurus X but there will a considerable gain in margin due to the high transaction price this vehicle will demand. F-Series is the oldest pickup on the market and it still hasn't matched Dodge or Toyota in the rebate war but it is holding up much better than Dodge or Chevy, for that matter, in year over year sales. In the Fall, the new F-series will come out and while it won't set any sales records it will probably average a $3,500.00 increase in transaction price compared to the current pricing environment. Fusion, Milan, and MKZ are getting long in the tooth but they too are coming out with mid-cycle updates in December which should raise their avg. transaction prices on each of them by about $2,000.
Inventory:
Ford has been reducing fleets sales for 2 years now and are more efficient at building vehicles closer to the daily sales rate than they have ever been. Focus, Escape, Mariner, Edge, MKX plants are all having trouble keeping up with demand so there is certainly no inventory issue there. Taurus, Sable, Taurus X are all underachieving and the Chicago plant is not running very efficiently. MKS and New Taurus will alleviate that problem by end of next year. The D segment of the industry is dead, the Taurus is holding up better than most in that segment. Avalon, Maxima, and all of Buick are droppping much faster than Ford. Fortunately, Ford closed it's third plant for the F-150 last summer so they aren't suffering as much as others on the full size pickup front. Explorer plant and Expedition plant are hurting too but so is everyone else in those segments
But to get to your point about dealership handling of inventory I can't argue with you. The dealerships are the weak link in this turnaround with the only brightspot being that morale at the dealership level is improving due to the recent accolades for qaulity, the surprising uptick in Focus sales and the fact Jim Farley is connecting with them better than anyone at Ford has in recent times.
My last buy-in on Ford was at $5.20 not even a month ago and today it was flirting with $7.10. So, of course, I wished I had bought more. April sales will be rough and hopefully their will be fallback to the low 6's and I will buy again. We will have to agree to disagree on the future of Ford but I am pretty optimistic right now.
4-18-2008 @ 7:43PM
gumbo koontz said...
competition between domestic and imports are good especially during boom years. it is bust years now, do you think competition is still a good idea? You got to save domestic makers now until boom years come again, no? I dont know. Nobody is really discussing on that or even stop and think about that, right? Doesnt matter? Oh, I see. ? Oh well! Maybe it is enough to have imports compete eachother with none of our domestic cars left to compete the next time around, no? hmm? sounds like cruel punishment, no?
4-21-2008 @ 11:58AM
jpdr1100 said...
Why is it that any criticism of domestic manufacturers is always taken as endorcement of imports? Why can't we just wish GM and Ford did better? It does not mean we have love for their competition.