As Joseph Lazzaro wrote earlier today, oil prices were surging once again in today's market, and traders set a new record, pushing prices up as high as $114.08 today.Fueling today's rally were concerns over global supply, as news spread that Russian oil production has fallen this year. This is the first time in a decade that Russia is seeing a decline in its production.
Russia is not the only country making headlines. We were also given the news that China had a massive jump in its diesel oil imports last month of a remarkable 49%. So, we are being given both the news that Russia is producing less, while China is demanding more; the perfect recipe for a strong day for oil prices. Other oil producers, Mexico and Nigeria, announced that they had temporarily shut down some of their production as well.
The recent run up in oil prices has been a major reaction to the falling dollar, but it has gotten to the point now where the market is so emotional that any hint that supplies could be in question is resulting in higher prices.
Also in the news this week is Iran. While tensions in the Middle East are nothing new, any rhetoric that flows out of the oil rich region will result in spooking oil traders into driving prices higher. Yesterday, Iran put out a pretty stiff warning to Israel. Iranian deputy commander of the Iranian armed forces, Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, stated today that his country was prepared to crush Israel, and that "Israel would be wiped off the global arena" should Israel make any move against it.
Tensions over Iran and its possible nuclear program have had oil traders worried for the past few years. Iran is steadfast in the fact that it is only seeking nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, but not everyone (especially the United States), is so sure, and argue that Iran needs to be stopped from further pursuing any nuclear technology out of the fear that the country is trying to develop nuclear weapons.
So far sanctions have not been able to convince Iran to halt its program, and just last week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that his country was actually expanding the program. Whether or not Iran is looking to enrich uranium in order to power nuclear power plants, or to use in nuclear weapons is up to you to decide.Iran is the world's fourth largest oil producer, so as long as tensions are running high with the country, oil traders will continue to worry about what would happen should production from the country get disrupted.
So what does all this really mean for you? Well, the most notable impact is what you are feeling every time you pull into your local gas station to fill up your tanks. Gasoline prices have been surging to new highs, and once again set a new high last night, at $3.39 a gallon, according to AAA. At its current price, gasoline prices are now more than 50 cents a gallon higher than they were at this time last year, and showing no signs of relief.
Analysts have predicted, on average, that we will be seeing prices top out around $3.60 by the middle of the high demand summer driving months, but don't be fooled if we blow through that estimate before it is all said and done. A lot of industry analysts are predicting that prices will actually move up as high as $4.00 a gallon before retreating later this year. Let's hope they are wrong.
OK, to finish this up, let's take a look at just how sharp oil prices have risen lately. Here is a current chart to get a better impression:












Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-16-2008 @ 8:09AM
B. Harrison said...
A definitive perspective: How much of the price increases is attributable to "price gouging" and how much of it is attributable to the falling devaluation of the U.S. dollar on the world currency markets?
As the value of the U.S dollar falls, the prices are adjusted upward . . . that is just "common sense". So, how much is the cost of petroleum going up in Euros? That might be a better indicator as to what is going on with price increases . . . and it might emphasize to Americans that a crucial problem is the continued DEVALUATION of the U.S. dollar.
4-17-2008 @ 1:45AM
Kent said...
Rising prices for oil can not continue at this pace without endangering our national security. Briefly, our annual consumption is horrendous : 8 billion brls/year. Our known untapped reserves is estimated at around 29 billion + the recent 3 billion brls discovered in S.D. which calculates out to be a 3-4 year supply if we're cut-off by OPEC. We have to think outside the box now and forget about lip-servicing our national goal toward alternative fuels. I am not in favor of converting our corn crop into ethanol based on the brief research I did : it takes about 11 acres of corn to supply on average 1 automobile worth of gas per year. Our total corn acreage is 95 million acres which in absolute terms means we can only supply 8 million automobiles our of the 240 million vehicles we have already registered in this country; not mention how damaging this touted project would be to our food chain. Pennsylvania and Montana are on the right track : they are funding research into hydrogenating our coal into hydrocarbon fuels by reviving the long forgotten Fisher-Tropsch system used by Germany during WWII. With our vast coal reserves, the U.S. could conceivably become oil-free for the next 300-400 years by which time we will have developed the next generation of advanced energy fuel systems. We need cheap and plentiful fuel supplies to maintain our economy and national security. Today's situation is absolutely ridiculous and short-sighted.