eBay Q1 preview: Growth in active users is key

Posted Apr 16th 2008 1:48PM by Henry Blodget
Filed under: Earnings Reports, eBay (EBAY)

Ebay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) reports earnings after the close. Conference call at 2PM Pacific, 5PM Eastern. Silicon Alley Insider will provide live analysis of the release and conference call after the close.

PREVIEW

eBay's stock has rallied off the low on stronger-than-expected listings growth. The company's recent fee changes to its core marketplace appear to have helped -- despite the screams of buyers -- but the proof will be in the actual sales figures (cutting listing fees should obviously stimulate more listings, but these may not be sustainable and may not have translated to conversions).

In our opinion, however, the most important metric for eBay proper will be Active Users. As the Wall Street Journal has noted, eBay's user growth has fallen to near zero. If the company is to turn its core business around, it has to find a way to draw more users (buyers and sellers) to the site. If it can't do this, the near-term listings growth is irrelevant.

PayPal is a different business, and its performance should be solid. Same for Skype, which we hope will soon be sold. Guidance should increase for the balance of the year, as eBay always lowballs guidance. (If it doesn't increase, the company will have missed its own expectations).

Key Metrics:

* Revenue: $2.06 billion, up 17% (above company guidance of +16%). FX will add at least 500 basis points.
* EPS: $0.39 (high end of guidance, at least a penny of upside)
* eBay Marketplace Revenue: $1.35 billion (Doug Anmuth, Lehman)
* Gross Merchandise Value (GMV): $15.8 billion, up 11% (Goldman)
* Active Users: 87mm, up 5% (acceleration)
* Total listings: Approximately 650 million
* PayPal: Lehman Brothers' analyst Doug Anmuth estimates revenue of $550 million, up 27%
* Skype: $120 million-ish (up from $113mm in Q4)

eBay Q1 Earnings: LIVE ANALYSIS (after market close)

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

4-16-2008 @ 8:20PM

Mozelle said...

I believe people have lost confidence in eBay. Stock holders in particular. eBay stock is dead as a door knob! It moves up a little tiny bit, only to drop back to around 27.00.
I see no difference today.

Again we get all these glowing reports coming from eBay, yet their stock stays flat!

Time for eBay to consider paying a dividend!
A good start would be to Sell Skype to Google for 6 Billion and take that money and divide among share-holders! lol.

Get that stock price back up!
Stock prices influence buyers and sellers both! Nobody wants to deal with a loser company!