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Texas Instruments (TXN) shares stung by Nokia outlook

TXN logoTexas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) shares are falling after mobile-phone maker Nokia (NYSE: NOK) declared a first quarter profit of $1.9 billion, which fell below analysts' estimates and warned of a small decline in the handset market. This has pulled down TXN, which makes chips used in mobile-phone handsets. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TXN.

After hitting a one-year high of $39.63 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $27.51 in March. This morning, TXN opened at $28.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.29 and a high of $29.61. As of 12:10, TXN is trading at $28.55, down 1.06 (-3.6%). The chart for TXN looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $32.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in three months as long as TXN is below $32.50 at July expiration. TI would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

TXN hasn't been above $32.50 since January and has shown resistance around $30 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 4/21) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance TXN might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $32.50 and falling.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TXN or NOK.

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Last updated: October 12, 2008: 05:37 AM

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