Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical drops on analyst disappointment


While analysts have proven over and over again that they are human (can't be more polite than that) the impact that they have on short-term stock values is clear. Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG), which closed yesterday at $348.50, dropped to $310.54 at the opening bell and is now trading at $292.00 as I type away. I will report the closing price in an update, but for now the stock has been hit hard -- down over 16%.

ISRG the maker of the da Vinci system, which uses robotic equipment and computers to do minimally invasive surgical procedures disappointed analysts and the stock was punished. Interestingly ISRG reported strong growth and even a positive outlook, however, that outlook was not as glowing as analysts expected and the result is not pretty. Does this mean that the company is not doing very well -- no. Does this mean that the stock price will not be higher next year than it is today -- the answer is no again.

What it does mean is that like other stocks with nosebleed valuations, such as Intuitive's with a trailing P/E of 80, they remain hypersensitive to the slightest deviation from expectations, reasonable or not. This happens even when Intuitive Surgical Q1 profit almost doubled.

Intuitive Surgical reported Q1 EPS of $1.12, compared with analysts' consensus estimate of 98 cents. The company's Q1 revenue was $188.2M, versus the consensus of $178.21M. The company predicted that its revenue would grow 42% in 2008, implying revenue guidance of $853.2M, versus the consensus of $857.3M. Two research firms had different outlooks on Intuitive Surgery's shares after the company announced its results. Deutsche Bank believes the results should reduce worries about the credit crunch negatively affecting the company. The firm thinks the underlying demand for robotic surgery is favorable, while the company's business is still strong, and they maintained their Buy rating. ThinkPanure downgraded the stock to Accumulate from Buy. While the firm believes that Intuitive had a strong Q1 and they forecast that the results will help the company grow into its multiple, they do not anticipate that the shares will appreciate this year.

UPDATE: Closing price $288.50 down $60.00 (17.22%)

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of ISRG.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 11:43 AM

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